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When Will Toyota Overtake GM For Number 1?
Looking at the year ahead, there's no stopping Toyota.

Analysts say 2007 could be the year the Japanese manufacturer surpasses General Motors Corp. as the world's No. 1 automaker in vehicle sales.

Soaring oil prices have drivers around the world snatching up gas-saving Toyotas with a reputation for reliability, like the Camry — the best-selling car in the U.S. nearly every year since 1997 — and the Corolla, the world's top-selling car.

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When Will Toyota Overtake GM For Number 1?



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G35LoverG35Lover - 12/14/2006 3:14:38 PM
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99gs40099gs400 - 12/14/2006 6:16:07 PM
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BEFORE U KNOW IT !!! GO TOYOTA


jon21jon21 - 12/14/2006 3:15:06 PM
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I think at the end of 2007. :)

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lexusis350lexusis350 - 12/14/2006 3:16:10 PM
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In my opinion, Toyota has already surpassed GM. GM is taking their sale numbers from eight different companies. Toyota is just a little bit behind them, and they have five less companies. So bascially, Toyota has almost surpassed GM with three companies instead of eight.

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SilverAeroSilverAero - 12/14/2006 3:19:38 PM
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It won't when the camaro comes out and everyone sees that the prius's gas milage is skewed. As far a reliability is concerned perception is the only thing that needs to change, there are too many people in the world who know nothing about cars but assume that a toyota is gonna be more reliable.

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1970toyotamarc1970toyotamarc - 12/14/2006 3:32:24 PM
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You honestly think the 2 door Camaro will save GM? Sure, just like the Regal/Cutlass/Grand Prix GM10 triplets saved them in the late 80's. Has the Mustang saved Ford? Last I checked, Ford was #4 in saled last month. And by the time the Camaro comes out, it will have to contend with a new Mustang and a Challenger, while buyers will have to contend with $4 a gallon gas.

As for mileage, just wait till the new EPA estimates show Silverados getting 13 mpg, and GM has to stop lying about having so many cars that get above 30mpg.


SilverAeroSilverAero - 12/14/2006 4:43:45 PM
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No the camaro won't save GM but it will bring alot more intrest and excitement to the brand. Do you honestly think people will keep buying the prius with the same enthusisasm when VW's can get similar gas mileage. Once the Camaro and the impala come back and spawn a new breed of good looking American RWD cars, people's intrest will shift. That is why i am so excited about the camaro. I can't say toyota has any car coming down the pipes that i am looking forward to, cept mabey the Supra but that won't be as mainstream as the camaro. I predict that in the next three years GM will get its shit together. As far as gas goes, When it does get high, all these ethanol cars will have a fuel, the US is currently stockpiling ethanol, if i could afford to buy stock, i would in the Ethanol companies. But we're getting off topic.


GS450hGS450h - 12/14/2006 5:13:30 PM
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SilverAero,

Perception is reality. Toyota is perceived to be more reliable than other brands because those who own a Toyota or Lexus swear by them. I have owned Hondas, Fords, BMWs, Nissans and a Jeep and on average they have not been as well built or reliable as the Lexus I drive right now. Needless to say, I'm much more hesitant to buy a car from another company besides Toyota simply because of the peace of mind it brings. You know that the the car will not break down as long as it's properly maintained. The things are practically bulletproof.


SilverAeroSilverAero - 12/14/2006 7:19:42 PM
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I relpied to this forum full well knowing that i would recieve some heat. I know plenty of people who swear by cars that arent toyota. I used to work in the automotive industry and the acura and toyota service managers told me they all have the ame problems as american cars, however the audi manager said his cars were worse. Back to the argument, i think that toyota can/is on top for a short time but i feel that GM has got some really exciting things coming down the pipe that will bring it back.


Designer1Designer1 - 12/14/2006 3:40:41 PM
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Yep, I think Toyota surpassed the big 3 many years ago.

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Designer1Designer1 - 12/14/2006 3:41:13 PM
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Hold on a sec, are they still being called the big 3?


lexusis350lexusis350 - 12/15/2006 10:06:20 PM
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No, they've changed it to "the three who are barely making it"


courtstonecourtstone - 12/14/2006 4:04:27 PM
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Either way Toyota will have to tread lightly in fear the the American auto companies will launch some type of sanction against them and Honda. I believe that is why Toyota/Honda is keen on building plants here in the US.

I just fear that eventually it will lead to an "anti-japanese" bias in the automotive world.

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wooodwoood - 12/15/2006 8:14:03 PM
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Not likely to happen. The politicians wont let it happen.


EL34EL34 - 12/14/2006 4:06:07 PM
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And then VW will step into #2 and go after Toyoda.

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courtstonecourtstone - 12/14/2006 4:11:07 PM
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If there is any other non-american company to step to #2 it will be Honda.


kart1kart1 - 12/14/2006 4:46:46 PM
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Yeah sure - having 10 companies with 6 of them being low sellers will not take over sales from GM.


EL34EL34 - 12/14/2006 5:49:28 PM
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houstoncutie, around here VW's are selling like In-N-Out burgers.


jpmracingf1jpmracingf1 - 12/14/2006 6:30:58 PM
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VW and In-N-Out burgers...hmmm. Now I get it. So THAT'S why my In-N-Out burgers keep falling apart as I eat it!


S4cabriofoxoneS4cabriofoxone - 12/14/2006 10:46:46 PMView My AgentSpace
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I have to agree. Honda seems more up to the task than VW.

VW sells less than Lexus sells (in the US) per month. Embarrassing to say the least.

However, on a world scale, they will stay within the top five.


lexusis350lexusis350 - 12/15/2006 10:07:22 PM
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VW will step into #2 all right, #2 on the worst vehicles list.


S4cabriofoxoneS4cabriofoxone - 12/17/2006 1:33:54 AMView My AgentSpace
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Have you ever even SEEN a VW Passat or GTI? So cool-looking.


lexusis350lexusis350 - 12/17/2006 2:26:23 AM
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Have you seen a Passat or a GTI? If you thought it was cool looking, it probably wasn't a VW.


GS450hGS450h - 12/14/2006 4:57:56 PM
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Toyota is already the largest in terms of capitalization and it's by far the most profitable. It's only a matter of months before they sell more cars.

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wooodwoood - 12/15/2006 8:24:40 PM
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For Toyota, its not exactly a race to sell more cars but to be more profitable. GROWTH. This means they have to sell more cars because of their capacity and demand for their cars is still very strong and has a lot of room to increase. So selling more cars means they will be earning more. The title of No. 1 carmaker is just a coincidence because fewer and fewer people buy american cars.

Not the case with Americans. Americans lose money on the cars they build now because they have excess capacity and low demand for their cars. And they have to keep building them so as not to lose more money by closing plants and paying out the workers.

So aside from who makes the most number of cars, profitability should be the main concern and gauge as to who will be number 1.


Loki123Loki123 - 12/14/2006 5:23:46 PM
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Question : "When Will Toyota Overtake GM For Number 1?"


Answer : September 2008

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XYZZXYZZ - 12/14/2006 7:38:28 PM
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it will be SOONER. sometime in '07


rockerrocker - 12/14/2006 5:42:56 PM
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Based on last month's numbers, Toyota is still 1,000,000 cars annually behind GM. Also according to last year's number Toyota earned $6 billion less than GM. Those are some very big numbers in case anyone was wondering how much difference there was.

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XYZZXYZZ - 12/14/2006 7:40:43 PM
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do you know the DIFFERENCE between revenue and PROFITS?

i can't recall when gm was not BLEEDING red ink.


sracekilisracekili - 12/14/2006 9:21:39 PM
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According to my calculation based on the figures in the article, GM is about 320K units sold last year ahead of Toyota. The difference in profit.... well... GM is not looking good at all :-(


EL34EL34 - 12/14/2006 5:58:08 PM
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Since Toyota counts Scion and Lexus sales I will guess VW will be #1 by 2010.

Watch out Toyota!!

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mkt1982mkt1982 - 12/14/2006 11:03:29 PM
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TOYOTA already defeated GM.

Is it wrong?

Do you think that GM won TOYOTA?

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2JZSoarer2JZSoarer - 12/14/2006 11:19:01 PM
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Toyota's profits are much higher than GM's!!!

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no1listensanywayno1listensanyway - 12/14/2006 11:58:58 PMView My AgentSpace
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Toyota will become number #1 in the next 2 years. But I do believe with their number #1 status, they are going to experience growing pains. You can already see the problems they are having with their rapid growth, with the recalls of some of their vehicles recently. Any serious quality issue or recall will rattle Toyota's image more than any other car company in the world. (American manufactures are immune to this) Therefore with a company that big there are bound to be problems. The real problem is once they get to the top, Wall Street is going to be watching every little move they make. If there is a recall or failed product launch there stock is going to get hit hard along with their credibility. They are better off hovering between 2nd and 3rd place, so that GM can take all the heat on Wall Street.

On the other hand, GM does have some promising product coming out over the next couple of years. With their new crossovers, pickups and full size SUVs, along with the new midsize platform and revitalized Saturn and Cadillac lineups they will be just fine. (Please don't use gas prices as an excuse, because there is plenty of oil supply in the world and as long as the Middle East keeps quiet with conflicts, prices will get lower)

Most importantly, GM has been in this business for a long time and losing the #1 spot won’t be taken lightly by the board, shareholders and hopefully the American public.


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DieselRulesDieselRules - 12/15/2006 12:18:08 AM
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If you count CARS rather than total vehicles, VW & TOYOTA beat GM a long time ago.
VW was number one until a couple of years ago, and Toyota is now #1 in car sales (VW #2)
I posted the numbers in another comment, but it got deleted (all numbers come from OICA. http://www.oica.net/ and were verifiable ... some people don't want to hear the truth)

I think that Passenger CAR production runs like this:
1. Toyota
2. VW
3. GM
4. PSA/Citroen
5. Ford
6. Honda
...
Daimler/Chrysler is somewhere around #10 (of course Chrysler lives off vans and trucks ... until the 300 they didn't have anything worth mentioning from Detroit).


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DieselRulesDieselRules - 12/15/2006 12:24:16 AM
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Forgot to say...... I think Toyota will become #1 overall shortly. They don't make the best cars, but they sure have the best marketing and they have the most money for more marketing.

NEW SLOGAN: "Toyota: Brain-washing Americans since 1985!" ;)

They built a reputation on the backs of Detroit's garbage in the '80s, and they're still living off it now, even though Nissan and Mazda make just as good cars (and Subaru is arguably the best Japanese car ... who else puts an airplane engine in their car!)

I wish I bought Toyota stock back then.......


sracekilisracekili - 12/15/2006 2:24:36 PM
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It's not too late to invest in Hyundai stock right now. History has a pretty good track record of repeating itself, you know.




joerayjoeray - 12/15/2006 8:29:07 AM
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If they are going to do it, they'd better do it soon. GM has been a sleeping giant for the last 30 years but has finally woken up. People, you may not be aware but GM is coming out with technology that will leap frog Toyota. One of the technology is a "two mode hybrid transmission". Here's one of many links that explains:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Mode_Hybrid
This is only one of example. GM has many more and can do this because their engineering staff is second to none. Toyota is pushing real hard because they know with a non sleeping giant like GM, they could start losing sales.


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paul3230paul3230 - 12/15/2006 5:54:47 PM
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I agree with you. Toyota is worried..because, what goes up, must come down. Toyota can't keep this up forever..at some point, the market will equal out..don't know if GM will still be ahead, but at some point, Toyota will have really fight for every sale..


XYZZXYZZ - 12/16/2006 12:59:43 AM
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yeah, but you're ignoring MOMENTUM, the BIG MO'!

when you get to volumes like both companies have, things do NOT change overnite.

with public opinion, unless there are prolonged, MAJOR screwups, the momentum is EVEN MORE significant.

how many thousands, even HUNDREDS of thousands, did gm piss off with shoddy products in the '80s? in the interim, most of those people learned what REAL quality meant.

even if GM matches toyota quality, like yesterday, that will NOT become apparent to the general public for 4 - 8+ years. THAT is how long toyota maintains an advantage in CR repair studies.

it's like people HAVE become aware how SHALLOW the 'initial quality' rankings are. who CARES what brand rates high for the 1et 90 days. it's how the cars hold up 3, 4, 5+ years DOWN THE ROAD that impresses buyers.

ESPECIALLY those who say they'll run their cars 'until the wheels fall off.' it makes a HUGE diff to those folks if the wheels fall off in just 5 or 6 years, vs. 10, 12 or more.


XYZZXYZZ - 12/16/2006 1:17:51 AM
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at this time, it is GM who is fighting for every sale.

the ONLY relevent question today is, how long before gm turns around. that has been a big question in both the investment AND auto industries for YEARS.

toyota can relax for another 5 years or so. (except in their corporate culture, they NEVER do. sorry, gm.)


1uberaudi1uberaudi - 12/15/2006 11:47:57 AM
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There is no doubt in my mind that Toyota will be number one. They have very agressive sales and marketing. The problem is staying number one. You won't be able to do this if your recalling your cars every other week.

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XYZZXYZZ - 12/16/2006 1:12:26 AM
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see my above comments re: momentum.

sales decline of toyota due to (all mostly minor) recalls will NOT happen BEFORE german brands' sales PLUMMET due to more people experiencing and getting disgusted by the HORRIBLE record of electrical/electronic malfunctions.


mk5gtimk5gti - 12/15/2006 1:07:40 PM
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When will American companies face the reality that they are still in a hole, and are NOT number 1 in the world on anything. GM is stupid enough to keep claiming the #1 title, when they are selling every car at a lost. Who cares if they keep selling 100,000,000,000 cars in the world if they don't make any profit.

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paul3230paul3230 - 12/15/2006 5:53:23 PM
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Show me where GM is claiming the #1 title? God! How many articles have there been about "when will Toyota be #1". Who cares..


99gs40099gs400 - 12/15/2006 4:12:17 PM
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^^^^^^^ is call buying the title and on your way to bankruptcy !!!!!!!!!

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S4cabriofoxoneS4cabriofoxone - 12/17/2006 1:34:42 AMView My AgentSpace
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Well, for now, you're going to need that warranty!

Perhaps GM is feeling confident and their reliability will skyrocket.

Perhaps.

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