With Telsa Model S Sales Dropping, Does It Simply Mean There Is NO Market For 75K+ EV Sedans? And Should Audi And Porsche Worry?

With Telsa Model S Sales Dropping, Does It Simply Mean There Is NO Market For 75K+ EV Sedans? And Should Audi And Porsche Worry?
None of the Auto Spies agents including me own an EV nor do any of them interest us at this moment in time. But you could also say even though EV's aren't in our near future that it doesn't mean we're not impressed with what Elon Musk has created. Because we are.

We've been covering cars for a long time and a lot of people have said they would build the next great car company and failed miserably.

Whereas Elon has not only built a great looking sedan out of the gate but also done a Steve Job-like seduction to the people who love him, his products and his vision of where the world is going in the future.

In many ways he is right but also, if you take off the rose colored glasses, his timeline for true success is VERY far out into the future.

And proof that we're right are in the sales numbers. Even with all the biased media lauding a Donald Fagen style I.G.Y. utopian vision for Elon, spreading the insane idea that we're all not far from living on Mars wondering where the hell our avocado toast is going to come from when we run out with the supplies we brought with us, less than 2% of sales in the consumer auto biz are EV's. I know that was a long sentence to swallow but hopefully you were entertained by my analogy and maybe will even throw the Fagen tune on as you continue to read this.

Here's the song if you've never heard it...you're welcome



Now back to my point. Even though we're seeing a lot of Model S's on the road the sales have been shrinking as well as transitioning to Model 3's.

One explanation could be the S is 2012 model and it's in need of some updating.

That could be but we're telling you that we think you would be wrong thinking that.

We believe the reason Model S sales are diminishing are because we don't think the market ever wanted a $75k+ sedan based EV. It's that simple. They bought it and overspent because that was the only choice. In fact, if Model 3 came out at the same time, we'll even go so far to say that the 'S' would have never taken off like it has.

So has the market decided that the only sweet spot in the EV space for sedan based products is say 60k and BELOW? And will that market take a hit when the small suv Model Y hits the market.

And if that's the case, are the EV's from Audi and Porsche doomed to mediocrity in the sales dept.?

Are we on to something here??

And one last thing...we are ONLY taking about sales success in the USA.

Spies...chime in and let us know your thoughts...


malba2367malba2367 - 8/25/2019 9:19:03 PM
+6 Boost
No...it just means that the $75K+ EV has to be a lot nicer inside than the $50K EV. The market of people who want only an EV and are able to spend $75K+ has largely been tapped...to attract customers who are not set on an EV the cars have to have interiors that are as nice as other cars in the price class.


jeffgalljeffgall - 8/25/2019 9:20:20 PM
+3 Boost
The S does not make financial sense for most (higher cost does not offset fuel cost), and has mainly tapped out the greenies, techies, and those looking at it as a status symbol who can afford it. Tesla needs a 2nd generation now to reinvigorate interest.

In addition, with most going to SUVs and the X being a joke when it comes to utility, another version built on the same platform, but more family friendly with a larger cargo area should help.


Car4life1Car4life1 - 8/25/2019 9:22:49 PM
+8 Boost
Lol ooooorrrr the car has been out since 2011/12 and should see sales decrease like any other model near the end of a cycle...

Let’s also remember it’s an SUV world and there’s not a midsize-large sedan on the market that hasn’t felt the dent in sales from their taller more practical stablemates


CANADIANCOMMENTSCANADIANCOMMENTS - 8/25/2019 9:27:50 PM
-1 Boost
Model S sales are down as this Carbase chart shows. 2019 figures are likely even lower. With sales hovering at 2% of the car market, BEV's are not going to be in everyone's driveway. It is an old model and while still highly capable, it will likely be replaced soon.

2018 25.745
2017 27.060
2016 29.421
2015 25.202
2014 16.698


TomMTomM - 8/26/2019 7:24:54 AM
+5 Boost
Actually - TEsla announced that it does not PLAN to replace the Model S for quite a while (I believe 5 years)

By then - they won't need to - it will be irrelevant


TruthyTruthy - 8/26/2019 12:24:44 PM
+1 Boost
The Audi outsells the S and X globally in the previous quarter. So, no, Audi and Porsche do not need to be worried. Tesla does.


MDarringerMDarringer - 8/25/2019 10:04:47 PM
+2 Boost
Does Tesla know that Telsa is making cars that look like carbon copies?

The Model S was the flavor of the moment. It's melted, dripped, and gone away as the flavor. The Model 3 is their current flavor and that will go away when the Model Y happens.

The Model S simply isn't current enough to be trendy. it was once but it is no more.


bw5011bw5011 - 8/26/2019 1:16:43 PM
0 Boost
Holy rusty metal batman, I agree with MDarringer


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 8/25/2019 10:48:46 PM
0 Boost
The Model 3 is too compelling right now, the extra $35k-45k from a very nicely equipped 3 is not worth the extra room and range for most buyers. The Model 3 also has some advantages such as better battery tech, handling, and less maintenance.

For sales to continue at 25k/year, there has to be extra incentive. An interior refresh would be great, as would a 400+ mile battery and a triple motor powertrain. These were all rumored to be under development, so we'll see what happens in 2020.


Agent001Agent001 - 8/25/2019 11:00:02 PM
-2 Boost
So then do you believe most will say cool Porsche or Audi and then just end up buying a Model 3?

001


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 8/26/2019 1:58:50 PM
+1 Boost
Yeah, unless you REALLY want a Porsche or Audi, a performance Model 3 for $55k or AWD model for $47k is really tough to overlook. Best bang for your buck for any high-end EV. 310 miles of range, mo maint for 4 years, 0-60 at 3.2 seconds.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 8/26/2019 7:47:42 PM
+2 Boost
$100k family sedan that is quicker than any Ferrari or Lambo in production, yeah.. that's high end.


rombeirorombeiro - 8/25/2019 11:19:56 PM
+3 Boost
Once again with “Telsa” in the headline. No shortage of ads but tons of errors. I give up. Accuracy matters. Deleting AutoSpies from my bookmarks. Good luck guys.


TauronB2GTauronB2G - 8/25/2019 11:34:20 PM
+7 Boost
That just means the Model S is stale on the market. It hasn’t changed it’s basic design in years. The update was nice but it’s time for a redesign.


PUGPROUDPUGPROUD - 8/26/2019 5:47:44 AM
+1 Boost
In the words of Bill Parcells, "You are who your record says you are."


mre30mre30 - 8/26/2019 8:33:01 AM
+3 Boost
IMO EV's are basically transportation appliances. Just like you can spend a few hundred bucks to buy a Nespresso machine, so you can spend $30 to buy a Mr Coffee at Target.

When the "S" came out, there was the 'wow' factor about how fast it was off the line. That novelty wore off and the whole package turned out to not be nice enough to justify the $80K to $140K price. The Model 3 offers slightly less luxury (the S was not that luxurious to begin with) and validated AutoSpies postulation that MAINSTREAM electric cars should be inexpensive.

Musk said it himself, the Model 3 is meant to be a mainstream EV. With that, once all the early adopters buy theirs, sales will drop off unless the price drops off.

Now, in American, there is always are market for 'premium' (for both people who can afford premium (cash buyers) and those who cannot (lessees)). The Taycan and the ilk will be a great product for those buyers who will purchase in quantities sufficient to generate profits for Porsche.

There is room for only a handful of 'premiums' though, and Taycan should succeed but other pricey EV's may not - its a small market segment at the top.


senftsenft - 8/26/2019 9:13:35 AM
+3 Boost
Maybe the riches, having had one S, want to replace it and there's no redesigned model after all these years and none planned for a long time to come. Sure helps to erode loyalty.
Maybe the other luxury marques about to dump a shit ton of EVs within the next year or so dissuades buying a Tesla now.
Maybe Elon's Trumpian spew of bullshit and constantly changing of features, etc., has made Tesla no longer cool. Maybe Elon's insanity and ineptitude has destroyed the brand loyalty other marques have.


GermanNutGermanNut - 8/26/2019 1:46:52 PM
+4 Boost
The market for $80K+ EVs is tapped out. The people that can afford it and wanted the Model S have already bought it. Tesla is trying to sell an outdated car to a market that doesn't really exist anymore.

The Model S has to be updated ASAP and it doesn't help that competition is coming to market.


vdivvdiv - 8/26/2019 1:56:44 PM
+3 Boost
Oh, the market exists, plenty of rich bastids. The Model S and X did their job, Tesla now has smaller in unit size, but more numerous fish to fry, the mass market.


valhallakeyvalhallakey - 8/27/2019 1:57:55 AM
+1 Boost
In general it is getting long in the tooth even with the motor and other updates. Also ... in general... there is a larger market for less expensive vehicles than more expensive vehicles. Finally there could be some who are waiting to see what Porsche and others are going to do over the next 12-24months. All these factors are weighing down sales of the Model S.


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