Germany's Auto Industry Faces MORE Setbacks — Should Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, VW Be WORRIED About The Future?

With each passing month, I sense that we are nearing a tipping point in vehicle propulsion, favoring battery electric. There are many stories that are connected by this change in technology:

1. US franchise auto dealers are trying to stop Tesla wherever possible, not because the fear the small share that Tesla has today, but because their own car makers can see that EVs require a different distribution approach, since EVs require so little service. For dealers, the battle is truly existential.

2. European car makers will go through a painful transition to BEVs, but they can more in lockstep thanks to toughening, but clear and unambiguous rules from the EU. That is a big advantage.

3. Detroit is tied up by The Footprint Rule that keeps them focused on building large, very profitable pickups and SUVs. One hopes that we will be surprised to find that all their profits are going into designing BEVs. But....I doubt it.

4. Japanese companies are struggling to keep the hydrogen story alive until the 2020 Olympics - once called The Hydrogen Olympics - is over and companies can shift focus to BEVs. 11 months to go.

5. China has lots of reasons to adopt BEVs: 1) they must clear up city air, 2) they must reduce dependency on foreign oil and c) they will use an unassailable lead in EV technology and production to export BEVs to the world.

6. Finally, the broad availability of BEVs will embolden cities, states and whole nations to place bans on ICE-powered vehicles, beginning with Diesels.

Big changes ahead!!

Good analysis, I would say that in the short term < 2yrs German car makers will suffer some, but it seems they are really committing to EVs and I think they are better positioned to make that transition than our domestic manufacturers and many of the Asian companies. I would say Toyota and the Koreans are best positioned in Asia to make that transition... maybe one of the Chinese EV makers??? I don't really know much about the domestic Chinese car manufacturing scene.

A very thought out analysis that leaves out one important factor, the consumer! Other than the “True Believers” plastic straw crowd most consumers in the USA have already rejected pure EVs for the obvious real world reasons that the “True Believes” always choose to ignore.. A hybrid system, probably a KERS would work best for the average consumer.

This is government mandated driven not consumer driven. Government regulations and mandates from Washington and Brussels change based on the political expediency of retaining their lucrative positions. A Trump re-election, a successful Brexit, a return to power of Salvini, the yellow vests that will deny Macron re-election, coupled with end of the driving force of Merkle in Germany a world now awash in oil with more becoming available all puts the automakers between a rock and a hard place.

moronic analysis by eddiefrankie

WTF EdwardFrancis? Are you an adult and do you own a car?

Did you cut and paste your list after listening to MSNBC’s Climate Change formum?

Chris Hayes and Ali Velshi of MSNBC spoke with the 2020 Democratic candidates about their plans to fight climate change during a forum presented by MSNBC, Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service, and Our Daily Planet.
Sept. 19, 2019.

Please tell us what credibilty (aside from internet access in your bedroom) you possess, to promulgate such drivel here.

ah No.

Audi/VW/Porsche is well positioned in this EV game and beyond.

Mercedes has been for awhile, 10+ years R&D that I know of and 20+ years in fuel cell which is probably the most advanced in the industry.

I don’t have any inside info on BMW but I doubt they are if I know this much..,

So nice try but Tesla did not invent EV and the world still doesn’t revolve around Tesla.

Short term (3-5 years) some worries that could greatly intensify if a global recession hits. Intermediate term (5-10 years) big worries due to big changes (as outlined above). Longer term mass consolidation of German manufacturers with each other encouraged by German government and unions to save as many jobs as possible as industry turned on its head by market conditions, technology, changing consumer preferences and tighter government controls. Much blood in the water, few but successful survivors and big losers throughout the industry globally in the future.

VWAG is the Old GM of Europe. They have too many overlapping brands. BMW is flailing wildly with one dumb design after the next.

Last men standing - Toyota, VW/Ford, Chinese/FCA, Tata.

Most smaller brands will either go out of business or find themselves owned by one of these parent companies. It is all just a matter of time.

Tata is toast.

@MD- Tata is a $45B USD global automotive giant. It's holdings go far beyond JLR. And it is just one part of Tata Global, which drives $110B USD in revenue each year.

That has NOTHING to do with the automotive world. Tata bought in and got their asses handed them with the JLR debacle. They are not going to continue funding the money pit. I know you socialists never look at the bottom line, but sane people do. They will divest soon. #Dismissed

Article grosly exaggerates the changes due to electrification. But already there exists a worldwide standardization of charging protocols. Practically all of the EVs coming to market will share a common electric drivetrain with several other vehicles of the same brand. Differences between models will be mostly a matter of which one of two or three drivetrain platforms and body works. Gone are transmissions, and a lot of auxillary sensors , etc required by ICE engines. Automated driving is mostly nonsensical. We have seen a rapid
development of EVs ,such that Porsche has produced a car superior to anything Tesla has in production, despite a decade's leadtime. Porsche has relegated Tesla to an also ran in the looks and handling and speed department and can even recharge its batteries twice as fast, using the CCS charging protocol which is the world standard. Meanwhile Tesla faces lawsuits galore for their deathtraps using Autopilot. VW is about to clobber Tesla on the bottom end in the same way that Porsche, JAguar and Audi electrics have clobbered Tesla's premium Model S/X brands.

In order for the EV to take over the world of transportation - YOU DEFINITELY are going to need three other things -

1 - A Huge and Rapid development in the production of electricity - neither of which has even begun to happen - and based on laws around the globe - is going to take decades.

2 - A virtually complete replacement of the ANCIENT electricity grids around the world - because our current grids do not have a chance of handling the amount of additional capacity needed to replace a significant number of the current cars on the road - MUCH LESS MOST of them. And virtually ALL of these grids cannot handle the higher voltages required for Quick charging stations. None of this has even started as well.

3 - And of course - we will also need some NEW way of charging all these vehicles - since MOST of the vehicles on the road today and NOT owned by Suburban Home owners who can install charging stations in their homes. High Rises in many large cities will require MULTIPLE dedicated FLOORS for the charging of cars alone. Add in the additional need to charge cars that are not near their home charger - the extended time required beyond that of a simply fill up of gas (Which will require MORE charging stations that we currently have Gas Pumps). How many of YOU have seen large numbers of gas stations that are installing charging stations right now?


And by the time ALL OF THIS HAPPENS - we might end up with a completely different model of Transportation - where autonomous vehicles owned by public utilities are summoned by APP and replace all privately owned cars on the road. That would be far more efficient (Certainly you would only need a few models - the could be engineered to only reach certain speeds and otherwise produced for Efficiency - not speed or handling) - you would need far less vehicles - far safer (no speeding alone would do that) - and only would eliminate half the current jobs on the planet to do it. And of course - as the current Poll mentioned on AUTO SPIES suggest - people would be happier with having more time enjoying Howard Stern!