The Germans Scoffed At Lexus In The Beginning And Almost Lost The Market, Have They Done The Same With Tesla?

A $40k EV will require less maintenance and cost much less to fuel, so the real cost over it's lifetime will put it equivalent to a $30k ICE car with no incentives. Tesla is already pretty close to incentive free, in the US, we'll see how it does Q1.

A true test of what level of company Tesla is within the industry is how they plan for the future.

Currently the Model S, X have been around for a while. Will Tesla do meaningful vehicle revisions or just continue to upload software updates to the same cars year after year? Just when any of the major automakers introduce a completely new vehicle or a radically updated model....the very next question is "how will they follow that up? what updates are they planning for the next iteration?"

So far Tesla seems like it's just going to let the Model S, X die. Or maybe they do have future product plans that highly secretive. But they're "second act" will have to be spectacular bc all the major automakers have developed competing EV lines that will put in production in a few years. If Porsche or Audi or M-B has a nice EV, why would I shop Tesla?

Tesla doesn't do traditional model years, they'll do updates as soon as possible and have made dozens of major tweaks to the S/X over the years. They do have a major update coming next year, 3-motor powertrain and larger battery. Will be much faster than an already insanely fast car along with 400+ miles of range. I'm hoping they'll do an interior refresh at the same time, it could use some improvements from the 3.

Tesla cannot afford to do a new generation of the S and the X.

They can and it's coming. A lot of investors have already driving in the prototype version of it (Roadster), lucky bastards.

No- they have not. The fact is - we still have no idea how many will willingly convert to EVs without being bribed by the State or Federal Government or both.

While there are a few who would say that Tesla is a premium car - it is not - their largest seller is an entry level (For a high range EV) car whose interior is as stark as what came 50 years ago. Since we do not know what the price range of the average EV will be - we can only go by what we have - and it seems $40,000 is about right for the mass market. The average American car buyer cannot afford that car at that price. ANd we still have Miles and Miles to go before the infrastructure would support even current demand.

Just as they DID NOT lose the Luxury market (For years - the largest selling Lexus has been the ES - Basically a fancy Camry - and now a fancy Avalon) it will be decades before the EV market sorts itself out - and by then the players will be completely different from Today.

A $40k EV will require less maintenance and cost much less to fuel, so the real cost over it's lifetime will put it equivalent to a $30k ICE car with no incentives. Tesla is already pretty close to incentive free, in the US, we'll see how it does Q1.

Their main disadvantage, and Tesla's main advantage, is the network of Superchargers that has been built. The other area where the Germans are at a disadvantage is cost. The Germans need something to compete at the pricepoint of the Model 3. Make it with a better interior and at least the same or better range.

There is no going back to a cluttered interior after getting used to the 3, it's a one way trip much like switching to an EV.

You are tripping alright.

"One way trip" in that it will likely die, catch on fire or steer itself into an obstacle. Sorry SanJose, but I want to be able to mcomplete round trips in my car.

And still you're less likely to die in a Tesla than the car you're driving today.

Tesla is starting to bridge from early adopters who will deal with the pains that come with the brand, to the next phase of customers who have higher expectations of engineering quality and customer service. This group, although initially wowed by the trendiness of Tesla, will long term have less patience for what Tesla delivers and will not come back.

Case in point. Update on my friend’s Model X. With less then 2k miles, the car stopped powering on a few Saturdays back. He had to wait until Monday for a service technician to come to his house. Made him very late to work. It was ultimately towed away. He got it back Friday after they replaced the entire computer. Customers who bought a $100k Mercedes of BMW would be outraged.

The real question is if your friend would buy again after some time with the car. I have a friend that had major issues with a really early Model 3, and despite everything their next car will be a Tesla with 100% certainty. Most experiences are not like that and survey data is showing defects to be going down considerably. It'll never be perfect, but aggregate quality is headed in the right direction.

Time will tell, but if my car started to rust, need the flash memory replaced, have the falcon doors hit my garage wall or ceiling, get in a crash without he airbags deploying, hit a car in the parking lot when I summon it, and have the interior squeak me to death, I wouldn’t be a happy camper to rebuy when other luxury manufactures with better quality come to market.

Your friend had all those happen?

The Germans will be fine.

Of course, Gigafactory 4 will likely be in Germany so they'll still have jobs ;)

You're ridiculous. Tesla will get bought out. That has been Elon's plan all along.

The company is poison pilled, it will be near impossible to buy at this point. Plus no one can afford it besides Toyota.

Tesla will be bought for its name which is golden, but not for its engineering which is no more advanced than what anyone else has.

If GM were smart, they'd buy Tesla and co-brand it with Cadillac and Corvette.

Spare me the BS on valuation. Valuation is a pie-in-the-sky, theoretical-worth number of what the company "could" be worth if the flying unicorns of death agree.

The motors are objectively more advanced any way you slice it.. efficiency, output, cost. The outsourced their patents, but smartly did not patent the motor in the Model 3. The batteries on the 3 are more advanced than anything else being mass produced. The software is miles ahead of any other car company.

There is plenty of IP competitors should be worried about.

Germans almost lost the luxury market?!? Really, can anybody at Teslarati do math? Of course not or they would have that last quarter's "profit" was due to accounting sleight of hand. The underlining issues are persistent. EVs are a very small portion of the auto market and despite SanJose fangasm over Tesla notwithstanding.
And yes, Elon has planned all along to sell Tesla.

Yes the Germans almost lost their luxury market, you have no idea how much of an impact Lexus had on Mercedes and BMW (Audi was barely alive for the sudden acceleration accusations). If Infiniti’s launch had even been half as successful as Lexus the landscape could look very different today.

Tesla’s impact is much more precarious in that it’s not market driven but government regulatory Social Engineering which can and is changing. With EVs accounting for only 2% of the market and 25% of that is concentrated in a few zip codes in California and that is getting a rude awakening right now as the cost of being fashionable by driving an EV that can’t be recharged because California’s electrical infrastructure can’t supply power to even keep the lights and heat on.

Or like Trump saying it was "a perfect call."

Seriously, Agent009, if you have a position on Tesla stock you must disclose it.
MB sold 2.4 million cars in 2018 and made a net profit of nearly $9.0 billion. That is one German luxury automaker. BMW is nearly equal in size, then ther is Porsche, Audi, not to mention the Germans own Rolls Royce and Bentley. Let me know when tesla makes an annual profit, a legitimate annual profit.

The public will not be too eager to purchase a TEsla that is famous for its spontaneous fiery combustion danger.
NHTSA is currently now investigating the clear danger of Tesla cars spontaneously erupting in flames.

Despite all the hate on here, the Germans are definitely watching Tesla very closely. While the cars may not be as "nice" as German Luxury makes, they are definitely drawing from the customer bases (People who can afford to spend $45K and up on a vehicle). In addition surging Tesla sales in China will cause them to pay even more attention. I don't understand all the hate for Tesla on here...another serious competitor will improve products that we can all enjoy.