TRUE or FALSE? Will 2020 Be The Year Electric Vehicles Go Mainstream? Industry Analysts Say "Yes..."

TRUE or FALSE? Will 2020 Be The Year Electric Vehicles Go Mainstream? Industry Analysts Say
One thing is readily apparent in the automotive landscape. More electric vehicle models are coming to fruition.

Across just about all automotive manufacturers, there's at least one EV that's going to land in the next 24 months. But, keep in mind, that doesn't mean that EV sales will go gangbusters. As of now, the EV take rate is still in the low single digits — as a percent of total automotive marketshare.

Simply put, EVs are not shooting out the lights from a sales perspective. Automakers, however, are not backing down from rushing them to market.

And, industry analysts are proclaiming that 2020 may be the year of the EV. Then again, industry analysts say a lot of things.

A classic saying that seems to sum it up perfectly: "There's only two jobs you can be wrong and still keep it: Weatherman and an economist."

That said, I've got to ask: Are you buying it? Do YOU think 2020 will be the year the EV goes mainstream? Or, is this more nonsensical bluster?



Europe’s carmakers are gearing up to make 2020 the year of the electric car, according to automotive analysts, with a wave of new models launching as the world’s biggest manufacturers scramble to lower the carbon dioxide emissions of their products.

Previous electric models have mostly been targeted at niche markets, but 2020 will see the launch of flagship electric models with familiar names, such as the Mini, the Vauxhall Corsa and the Fiat 500.

The number of electric vehicle (EV) models available to European buyers will jump from fewer than 100 to 175 by the end of 2020, according to data firm IHS Markit. By 2025 there will be more than 330, based on an analysis of company announcements...


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PUGPROUDPUGPROUD - 12/27/2019 6:44:29 PM
+1 Boost
If mainstream means every manufacturer has one then yes.


atc98092atc98092 - 12/27/2019 7:41:00 PM
+2 Boost
While there will be a large number of EVs introduced in 2020, my guess is that most will be introduced later in the year. Later release means lesser impact in that calendar year. I believe 2021 will be more likely the year that EVs become closer to mainstream.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 12/27/2019 8:00:00 PM
-1 Boost
Absolutely, EVs are already mainstream in a few areas already the world. We're at the point of no return, net cost and weight are now comparable to a normal car if the EV is designed from the ground up to be an EV.


FoncoolFoncool - 12/28/2019 6:55:34 AM
+2 Boost
Operative word is “Few”


MDarringerMDarringer - 12/30/2019 9:35:14 PM
+2 Boost
Cost is NOT comparable to REGULAR car. The Model 3 is 2X the price of a CamCord FusNata.


Section_31_JTKSection_31_JTK - 12/27/2019 8:24:18 PM
+1 Boost
Nope. Not even close. Travel the rest of the country outside of California and you see precious few EVs.


TomMTomM - 12/28/2019 9:25:44 AM
+2 Boost
No - it is true
I live in NY Metro Central New Jersey - and if I see a couple or three EVs in a day - that is a LOT - and that is Precious few compared to the number of cars on the road.

WHile I believe 2022 will be the START of more EVS available - we still do not know the potential of the market - and how many rich people are going to move to them - they are simply beyond the buying power of the average American who will need a lot of incentive to buy them.

But - there is still no solution to the charging problems in areas where street parking is all that is available - in areas of Higher Rises without dedicated parking with Electricity available - and Garden APartment complexes - again without controllable parking too. TOO many people -even if they want one - do not have available the infrastructure needed to keep their cars charged - Certainly it will NOT be allowed to have extension cords crossing public walkways to cars - even IF you live in an area where they won't mess with your charging lines.

And I still note - we do not excess Electric Generation capacity - and are actually losing capacity as they close the few Nuclear Power Plants left in the US. What happens in the summer when they start mandatory Brown outs? Will the reduction in power not charge the cars properly? (OR will they outlaw that in brown outs?)


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 12/30/2019 9:16:03 PM
0 Boost
I see more than I can count each day, probably 100 on Highway 101 on my commute. In the summertime, some CA utilities are dumping electricity due to excess solar production... not enough batteries to store the power (yet). I'm sure grid storage is coming to New Jersey, which can double the output of existing plants. Decentralized grids (storage + generation at home) will also help. Brownouts are a temporary issue.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 1/2/2020 4:49:32 AM
+1 Boost
If I worked at Tesla I would probably see 300-400 cars a day. I have been to the both the HQ and Factory buildings and the parking lots are insane. I remember driving through looking for Model 3s right before they came out.


CANADIANCOMMENTSCANADIANCOMMENTS - 12/27/2019 9:43:45 PM
+2 Boost
If sales went from 2% to 3% that would be a 50% increase, but it is still a tiny percentage of the total 17M unit US market.


vdivvdiv - 12/28/2019 2:53:26 AM
+1 Boost
The US is falling behind in electrification, however progress is being made, including with the charging infrastructure. EV pickups and affordable crossovers will bump the adoption.


1lostVW1lostVW - 12/28/2019 10:00:54 AM
+3 Boost
False
With the exception of Tesla, electric models by every manufacturer are sitting unsold. The hype and the industry has VASTLY overestimated the desire or demand for all electric vehicles. Reasons: range anxiety, actual total effect on the climate/earth (far more polluting than a ICE car), bizarre or just plain ugly styling, lack of charging infrastructure outside of big cities. As much as I personally dislike Tesla products, Elon Musk has made an industry unto its own, his rock star status sells his cars... GM, Hyundai/kia, Ford, Honda, toyota, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, VW (especially this group of liars) do not have superstar personalities promoting their offerings and they really can not afford to sell huge amounts of EV's given the production of most of their EV's is more costly to build than they can charge for the products. Once all the crazy hype proves out that there is not the demand expected, the automotive industry might intelligently turn their attention to Hydrogen Fuel Cell ICE products. That is the true climate saving product and the ability to produce Hydrogen onboard a car is a scant few years off... Then we have a decade of change in the Automotive world and all the battery powered products will be similar to the GM 1996 EV1.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 12/30/2019 9:13:14 PM
0 Boost
Hydrogen is basically a crappy EV that is less efficient and requires a fuel that only has a few dozen stations across the US. I think it's game over on hydrogen before it even started. Fast charging (CCS, V3 Supercharger) makes it pointless. Battery prices are dropping to the point where fast, long-range, midsize EVs under $40k are realistic.


skytopskytop - 12/28/2019 10:39:13 AM
-1 Boost
EV's will produce greater profits to manufacturers since there are far less parts needed to build one. Manufacturers will begin compelling marketing programs to convince the public of their alleged advantages.


malba2367malba2367 - 12/28/2019 10:55:00 AM
+2 Boost
For them to go mainstream there will need to be a lot more availability at the lower price points for vehicles that are actually desirable (ie. not Nissan Leaf). Probably will take until 2025 for that to take place.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 12/30/2019 8:57:31 PM
0 Boost
2025 is super conservative, will be several Chinese options at cheap prices within a couple years.


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