Ten Years From Today WHICH Auto Companies Will Be GONE Or Rendered USELESS In The Market?

Ten Years From Today WHICH Auto Companies Will Be GONE Or Rendered USELESS In The Market?
If you would have told us just three years ago how much change would occur in the car business we probably wouldn't believe.

But more has happened in the last three years than in the last ten.

Big things. Like the death of the sedan. A truck that kind of looks like an aluminum range hood from the side that I actually have an order on. Companies like the Germans you could count on like a perpetual annuity.

But not any more. Many companies are trying to show brave faces but in the boardrooms they're crappin' perpetual bricks.

I made a prediction last year..."In 10 years, the German's will be as irrelevant in the USA consumer market as the English and the Italians are today."

People laughed. Industry colleagues smirked and thought what are you smoking?

But in the last year Tesla has put its foot on the accelerator and everywhere I look new ones are driving around. And for a comparison, I think I've seen ONE new BMW 3-Series on the road here.

Spies, WORLD'S ARE COLLIDING.

So tonight I ask YOU to make your predictions...10 years from today WHICH companies will be gone or rendered useless in the USA market? Tell us WHO and WHY.

Spies, discuss.


runninglogan1runninglogan1 - 7/16/2020 3:58:09 AM
+3 Boost
Lol!


TruthyTruthy - 7/16/2020 9:54:47 AM
+1 Boost
You may laugh runningfromfacts, but registrations for tesla were 48 percent in CA in the second. CA is their largest market. Elon is doing the magician's trick of trying to distract by announcing new battery and auto-destruct technology ahead of earnings announcement this week. If they lose money again, prepare for a stock free-fall.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 7/18/2020 9:22:33 PM
+1 Boost
This prediction has been wrong here for how many years now? At this point there is no denying that Tesla will be around for the long haul.


jeffgalljeffgall - 7/16/2020 7:30:05 AM
+1 Boost
Infiniti


jeffgalljeffgall - 7/16/2020 7:30:18 AM
+1 Boost
Acura


jeffgalljeffgall - 7/16/2020 7:30:54 AM
+2 Boost
Chrysler


countguycountguy - 7/16/2020 7:59:55 AM
+3 Boost
Tesla and genesis


MDarringerMDarringer - 7/16/2020 8:14:57 AM
-3 Boost
Buick
GMC
Chrysler
Fiat
Alfa-Romeo
Maserati
Lancia
Mini
Mitsubishi
Mazda
Jaguar
Seat
Opel
DS
Acura
Lexus
Tesla
Rivian
Fisker
Lucid



mre30mre30 - 7/16/2020 9:58:25 AM
+1 Boost
Since all cars and trucks are basically 'converging' into sameness, there is no reason for so many brands to exist.

Curiously, cars and trucks are better than they have ever been and the flip side of that is that there is less and less differentiation between them. They are converging into being indistinguishable.

The low-volume high end will stick around as long as there exists deep pockets to fund the brands (as per the above list, Maserati, Jaguar, Infiniti are going to lose their "sugar daddies" and fold).

Accountants will rule the middle and the low end with the result that redundant brands (Buick, GMC, Chrysler, Fiat, etc etc from the above list) will be culled.

Tesla will likely fold if it cannot scale up. Tesla has the love of the capital raising community as evidenced by its high stock price but it has likely never sold a car at a profit and it doesn't really have a product strategic plan (but it clearly has a PR plan which might be what's keeping it afloat). Tesla does not have a plan in place to both scale up (sales, customer service, after sales parts support, etc...not just car unit sales - with the customer service being an afterthought which it is now). Tesla probably folds at some point as the capital markets eventually lose interest.

Interesting times.


TruthyTruthy - 7/16/2020 12:02:30 PM
0 Boost
Thoughtful post, thanks. I agree that GMC has no reason to exist, but Buick is doing very well in China and produces there. That is their lifeline. I think if Cadillac fumbles their NEW, new direction and cannot grow, then fold them into Buick or just fold it.
tesla's rising share price is due largely to day traders who are less informed about market fundamentals and more emotional. This too shall fall.


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 7/18/2020 9:26:19 PM
+1 Boost
Tesla has obviously sold cars at a profit as they have had two sequential profitable quarters in a row and their gross margin is insane (close to 30%). The value has nothing to do with day traders, but the believe that they represent the future of cars and no one is anywhere close in the EV world. That may not be the case in the future, but I'm not optimistic any of the legacy automakers will catch up as it's not just making cars but changing the culture of the company to evolve at a faster pace, something very difficult to do and scale. If a company will give them a run for their money, it will probably be another EV-only company from China or the US.


MDarringerMDarringer - 7/18/2020 10:05:50 PM
+1 Boost
Buick is sputtering in China


TruthyTruthy - 7/16/2020 9:51:47 AM
0 Boost
Infiniti, Mitsubishi, Aston Martin, Mini (at least in the US, Fiat, Maserati, tesla


ricks0mericks0me - 7/16/2020 2:29:19 PM
+1 Boost
Plymouth, Oldsmobile, Divco, Mercury, Simca, Pontiac, Tucker, Stellantis

Stellantis >>> what a joke


ctsangctsang - 7/17/2020 10:55:52 AM
+2 Boost
all ICE automakers


SanJoseDriverSanJoseDriver - 7/18/2020 9:27:18 PM
0 Boost
Yup. I would say any company not planning to shift to EVs.
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