In a blunt interview last week, Lyft’s CEO David Riser doubled down on a claim that’s become his personal mantra: there is “zero likelihood” that fully autonomous vehicles will replace human drivers in any reasonable timeframe. Not in ten years. Not in twenty. Maybe never.
That’s right, spies—the same company that spent over a billion dollars on its Level 5 autonomy division (before quietly euthanizing it and selling the remnants to Toyota) is now telling us the robotaxi dream is officially fantasy.
So here’s the official Auto Spies courtroom question of the day:
Verdict time, agents. True or False: “There is zero likelihood that self-driving cars will replace human drivers in any reasonable timeframe.”
Cast your vote and then bring the fire in the comments.
To get the blood flowing, here are some deliberately spicy takes:
* True. Waymo’s 50,000 weekly rides sound impressive until you realize that’s inside three tiny geo-fenced retirement communities where grandmas drive 19 mph anyway. Scale that to Manhattan, Mumbai, or Naples at rush hour? Good luck.
* False. Tesla’s Robotaxi event wasn’t theater; it was a roadmap. When FSD Supervised goes from “needs intervention every 500 miles” to “every 500,000 miles” in the next 24 months (and it will), the insurance companies will force the economics to flip overnight. Lyft’s CEO is just mad his company bet on the wrong horse and got lapped.
* True. The sensor suite alone costs more than most cars. The second the lawyers discover “edge-case liability,” every OEM will run screaming back to Level 2+ driver-assist and call it a day.
* False. China doesn’t care about your tort law or your “but muh edge cases.” They’ll deploy a million robotaxis in Guangzhou before the NHTSA finishes another 800-page safety report.
Lyft’s own data shows their drivers average 30–35 mph in cities and still crash constantly. If a robot can do 40 mph with 99.999% fewer incidents, the human driver becomes the Blockbuster clerk yelling at Netflix.
Or… maybe the CEO is right and we’re all delusional nerds who fell for Elon’s PowerPoint again.
Your move, spies.
True or False? Explain yourself like your portfolio depends on it (because it probably does).
Comments are open. Flame throwers encouraged. No prisoners.