In a stunning turn of events last night, President Donald Trump announced that the United States has effectively taken control of Venezuela following a large-scale military strike that captured President Nicolás Maduro. This marks the most direct U.S. intervention in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion, with Trump stating the U.S. will "run" the country until a safe transition occurs. Maduro, wanted on U.S. drug trafficking charges, is now in custody, opening the door for American oversight of Venezuela's vast resources—particularly its oil.
Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, dwarfing even Saudi Arabia's. Yet, under Maduro's regime, production plummeted from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2016 to under 800,000 due to sanctions, corruption, and infrastructure decay. With U.S. control, Trump has signaled billions in investments from American oil giants like Chevron to revive the industry. Experts predict this could boost output to 3-4 million barrels daily within years, flooding the global market and driving down crude prices.
Current U.S. gas prices hover at a national average of $2.82 per gallon, already under $3 to start 2026, thanks to stable global supply and reduced demand. But with Venezuela's heavy crude—ideal for U.S. refineries—now potentially sanction-free and under U.S. influence, the ripple effects could be profound. Analysts foresee an initial oil price dip as markets react to the regime change, though short-term disruptions might cause a brief spike. Long-term, increased Venezuelan exports could slash Brent crude from $60 to as low as $40 per barrel if production ramps aggressively.
The potentials are tantalizing for drivers. Imagine gas dipping below $2.50 nationwide, or even $2 in oil-rich states like Texas. Optimists whisper of $1.50 per gallon if OPEC doesn't counter with cuts, echoing the 2014-2016 oil glut. Factors like China's demand for Venezuelan sour crude, geopolitical tensions, and EV adoption could temper this, but U.S. control might stabilize supply chains, benefiting everything from trucking to air travel.
However, risks abound: Political instability in Caracas could delay revival, and environmental concerns over Orinoco Belt extraction loom large. Still, this "FAFO" moment—where Maduro's defiance met U.S. resolve—could redefine energy geopolitics.
Spies, what's your take? Predict how low gas prices will go in 2026—$2? $1.75? Or lower? Share your forecasts in the comments!