The world's big automakers will venture deeper into the world of hybrid carmaking for the 2007 model year, but many still are reluctant to make a big commitment to this relatively untested market.
Builders on both sides of the Pacific say customer demand has yet to shake out on the vehicles that purport to offer better gas mileage and cleaner emissions. Sure, there are long waiting lists for Toyota Motor Corp.'s high-profile Prius, but hybrid models of others aren't moving quite as fast.
The reason is that in most cases, mileage benefits aren't enough to offset a premium that can total as much as $8,000 for hybrid cars. And those aren't windfalls, manufacturers contend, because it's more expensive to put both a gas and electric engine in each car.
That means until hybrid buying and production reach a critical mass, it's unlikely the premium will evaporate for consumers. Even then, it's doubtful that the price gap will be wiped out completely. This is why some carmakers are treading softly.
"We're not doubting there's a market," said John Weiner, director of product planning for Nissan Motor Corp "The question is, how big is it, how sustainable is it and how profitable is it?"
Nissan is coming out with its first hybrid model, a variation on its Altima sedan, in early 2007. Unlike the other two major Japanese automakers, Toyota and Honda Motor Co. Nissan has yet to stake out a full-fledged plan for rejiggering production toward hybrid or some other future in alternative fuels.
Weiner is reluctant even to give a price for the new Altima hybrid model -- or discuss its potential mileage -- until the car reaches showrooms next year. The company is loath to talk about specifics on its alternative-fuel strategy.
"There's really a wide range of things we're still studying," Weiner added. "We're just dipping our toe in the water on a number of things. We're not diving all the way in."
Gaining on gas prices
Hybrids gained notoriety over the past two years as gas prices spiked. Interest mounted after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast a year ago, driving the price of fuel past $3 a gallon in some states.
Toyota's Prius led the charge, as demand jumped for the bubble-shaped sedans that promised fuel efficiency of more than 50 mpg. It didn't hurt that almost simultaneously in California, the nation's biggest market, state regulators allowed the Prius and two Honda hybrid makes in carpool lanes with only a single occupant.
The two-month wait for a Prius is evidence that the cars can be viable sellers, but they're not automatic winners. Hybrids still account for less than 1% of all U.S. sales, making carmakers wonder whether they should forge ahead with them or wait until some other alternative-fuel vehicles begin to mature a decade or two down the road.
"I think I can name a dozen auto companies that would like to know that answer to that," said David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, a nonprofit think tank.
Most carmakers are like Nissan, hedging their bets by at least dabbling in a number of technologies, such as ethanol, various forms of diesel and hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells.
Still, the hybrid phenomenon has forced automakers to consider alternative fuels for a small part of their strategies. Each has varying degrees of commitment. At one end of the spectrum is Toyota, which plans to make 20% of all North American cars it sells hybrids by 2012.
At the other end are companies like DaimlerChrysler, which is participating in an effort to develop hybrids with two other car companies, General Motors Corp. and BMW. DaimlerChrysler plans to make a Dodge Durango hybrid, but that won't hit the market until 2008.
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