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Could Toyota's Missed Opportunity Raise Questions On Plug-In Viability?

inspirion7 submitted on 5/21/2009 Official Bell & Ross Timestamp: 12:43:18 PM

14 user comments | Category: Misc News | Source: | SOURCE: www.autoblog.com

While Nissan and Mitsubishi are (publicly at least) very bullish on EVs, Toyota apparently remains more skeptical.

Bill Reinert, Toyota's U.S. national manager for advanced technology, told a National Academy of Sciences panel in Washington that the company doesn't expect PHEV demand to top 50,000 units a year, and the total could be as low as 3,500. So far, the argument goes, in most real-world testing, PHEVs are showing relatively little benefit to justify the significant extra battery cost. Unless plug-ins are designed as such and able to operate through most of their range on electric power (unlike conversion PHEVs), the real world benefits may only be visible to dedicated hyper-milers.



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Could Toyota's Missed Opportunity Raise Questions On Plug-In Viability?

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inspirion7

"Show me the money" - Cuba Gooding Jr. The bigger the Government, the smaller the man.

— inspirion7 (View Profile)


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inspirion7

Toyota is betwixt a rock and a hard place. A great parallel in comparison is the Sony Beta debacle that occurred last decade. Sony wanted to capitalize and corner the market on the tech they developed. Well the problem with that is, in the real world, if there isn't access to what you have, others will find a different means to an end.

Toyota didn't see the domestics or others developing electric vehicles as fast at it has happened, sort of like the big three and their love affair with trucks and profit. Now Honda's assault on the Prius along with the Volt, a vehicle that has been attacked by Toyota from from the beginning, might just gain a stronghold in the hybrid market.
If it does, then after the infrastructure is developed and cost is assimilated by others, Toyota will jump in, but by then they would be behind the eight ball ( like the Tundra)

http://gm-volt.com/2007/11/09/toyotas-people-think-the-volt-will-blow-up-in-gms-face/

- In the battle to be the world’s number one automaker, at times things get a little ugly. We have heard alot about how Toyota thinks the Prius’ conservative parallel design is superior to E-Flex, and how they conservatively believe lithium-ion isn’t ready for cars yet (although they have that little Vitz secret), or that maybe something better than lithium-ion batteries is need to power electric cars (previous post).

Toyota is predicted to overtake GM in total vehicle sales for year 2007 for the first time in history. Their name has also become synonymous with “green car” due to the success of the Prius.
With GM’s very public and transparent plans and process to bring the Volt to production, Toyota is feeling threatened. Furthermore, groups of environmentalists are lobbying against Toyota’s green cred, because for one thing they oppose CAFE limits and for another, build big gas guzzling Tundras. In fact, a site about this has been created by these environmental groups: truthabouttoyota.com

Now in an article in the Economist, Toyota is reported as betting that the Volt will “blow up in GM’s face”, and that their plan to develop their own in-house batteries is superior to GM’s battery outsourcing strategy.
These are bold sentiments and indeed the stakes are getting quite high for both sides. If Toyota is right GM will be in big trouble, if they are wrong, the General’s Volt will leap ahead and leave the Prius in the dust.

— inspirion7 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 1:28:48 PM | reply to this comment | Votes: 0   

Anthony

"Toyota is predicted to overtake GM in total vehicle sales for year 2007 for the first time in history."

So not only do you appear to be plaigarizing, but you happen to be plaigarizing old an irrelevant news.

This is the first time I've heard that Toyota thought the Volt wouldn't succeed, but it certainly isn't the first time we've heard that sentiment.

— Anthony (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 2:20:14 PM | | Votes: 0   

1UAW

GM has plans to make thier own batteries in Michigan the plant is going up right now.

— 1UAW (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 3:07:54 PM | | Votes: 0   

inspirion7

I didn't "plaigarize" anything, it came from the site listed before the article (for the slow of learning, I will give the site again) http://gm-volt.com/2009/05/19/toyota-says-plugin-car-demand-as-low-as-3500-per-year-gm-says-low-demand-could-affect-volt-program/

. Just because you didn't hear about it, doesn't make it not so. I used that "news" that you believe to be irrelevant because, Toyota is still insisting, as you can see, that plug-ins might not be the way to go, thus the statement and charge that began some 2 years ago still makes the article " a relevan tie-in." Your knee-jerk reaction didn't or wouldn't allow you to see the time line of the front article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=arvp1GgT74o8&refer=japan

Don't hate the messenger, question the source if anything.

— inspirion7 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 3:48:56 PM | | Votes: 1   

Anthony

My "knee-jerk reaction" is based upon past experiences reading information posted by you. You are quite clearly biased against Toyota, which is fine considering the website we are on, but with that, you lose credibility.

But back to your article, first, please explain your headline. Explain how Toyota is "missing an opportunity." Toyota sold plugin vehicles in select states in the early 2000s with very little interest. This is but one of many reasons they are weary of the Volt. And as I mentioned, Toyota is not the first critic of the Volt. Your very own President called it too expensive.

— Anthony (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 4:27:50 PM | | Votes: 2   

inspirion7

Anthony, most know I'm fair and balanced for the most part. Do I have love for Toyota, not really. Have I owned Toyotas, yes, a few in the past and one right now, but have lost that "oh so loving feeling" because this company has lost what is important I feel to the consumer, and found greed. That is the honest part. I Will give credit whenever it is due, but I don't like haters like Toyota knocking what GM is doing. If they can't or will not compete then don't. But don't try to under-mind the competition. Second, Agent001 rants are pointless, so I feel the need to place checks on him, so that is where you might see most of my objections.

Toyota will not admit that the first foray into the plug-in arena has to begin somewhere and if it isn't them, then its not worth it. This is the same company that bags on the big three for having V8 and then makes the Tundra but is still environmentally sound. Some would argue that the company builds trucks because there is a need. How about the 2.5 million trucks sold by the big three?
I'm ranting but anyway I will like the Volt to make it to the market to put shit in the face of Tesla's CEO and to prove that Toyota should have stayed with the program and not be so down in the mouth about GM's EV progress. You can't reign forever.

— inspirion7 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 6:59:56 PM | | Votes: 1   

inspirion7

Also, if Toyotahas no interested (which is a bunch of shit) in EVs, then why did they vow a plug-in by 2010 last year?
http://www.boston.com/cars/news/articles/2008/01/14/toyota_vows_first_plug_in_hybrid_car_to_be_built_by_2010/


http://www.autoblog.com/2008/06/11/toyota-pledges-plug-in-hybrid-with-li-ion-batteries-by-2010/

This is long after their "we've tried plug-in's but they are not viable" early 2000 test market period. it so happen that Toyota is working their tails off to one-up GM and is trying to get something, anything to market it can plug into a socket faster that GM.

— inspirion7 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 7:14:36 PM | | Votes: 1   

DinamoR

toyota invest HUGE money to build 3 NimH battery factories. Of course they don't want plug in hybrids with Li-ion batteries. That would mean their investement is a failure, and they need new investments for Li-ion.

they want to milk this NimH thing a little longer

— DinamoR (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 4:30:57 PM | reply to this comment | Votes: 1   

MrBratwurst

These NiMH batteries factory is for hybrids.

Plug-in hybrids require more energy dense batteries than NiMH, both in terms of mass and volume.

— MrBratwurst (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 6:26:47 PM | | Votes: 1   

DinamoR

what did I just say?

— DinamoR (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 7:45:10 PM | | Votes: 1   

BigShow50

What amazes me is that no other vehicle has yet to be proven in the real world, based on reliability, satisfaction, true world EPA, and being able to produce on demand(especially on a global scale). The only 2 brands that can actually prove its'role consistently for the last 14 years or so is Toyota and Honda(barely for the big "H" in comparision to Toyota, & soon to follow Ford. Everybody at this point is all talk, especially GM(just for marketing purposes of coarse & saving face). Till the day any other fuel alternative brands actually start producing something in the next year or 2, plus showing their true EPA numbers along with reliability. Toyota continues to have the upper hand on everybody at anytime. Besides, what makes you kids think that Toyota has to "worry" and especially the thought Toyota is not actually producing something far and beyond what you are hearing now with fuel alternatives? It's simple...Toyota knows how to be politically correct in good Ol' U.S. of America(since the world revolves around this side of the planet's economy). That being said, they know when to bring out the right products at the right time without the need to "BRAG" about something when it ain't even here as of yet. Everybody else is forced to pay that much more in R&D/Marketing to just keep up and say "Hey!!! We have one too you know, but it's not ready?!?!?"....Bunch of loosers...LMFAO!!!!!

— BigShow50 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 5:56:46 PM | reply to this comment | Votes: 1   

huu76

EV would be nice, but it faces similiar infrastructure problems that hydrogen does. If you're not in a hurry, a wall socket overnight will be fine, but I don't see too many power stations on the highways yet for a quick 5 minute refill.

EV will probably exist side by side with hydrogen, but it'll take a while before they become more mainstream.

I suppose cost is another factor. If they cost the same as a hybrid (which I doubt they will at first) and get roughly the same mileage, people will more than likely opt for the hybrid until the battery ranges increase.

— huu76 (View Profile)

Posted on 5/21/2009 11:23:18 PM | reply to this comment | Votes: 1   

crslmn

Toyota, GM, and Chrysler have all tried the EVs already and they(RAV4 EV, EV1, Caravan EV)all failed to make an impact. I live about 5 miles from a power plant and I am pretty sure the smoke coming from the stacks would grow with a large number of electric vehicles. I bet over 80% of electric power plants burn fossil fuels. Increasing the amount of electricity we use can not be good for the planet.

— crslmn (View Profile)

Posted on 5/22/2009 12:50:19 AM | | Votes: 2   

Jordanski

GM sucks. Prius FTW - at least I know it won't fall apart a couple years down the road.

— Jordanski (View Profile)

Posted on 5/24/2009 11:35:50 AM | reply to this comment | Votes: 1   

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