US light vehicle sales will begin a slow but steady recovery in 2009, building to 17.7 million units by 2014 as the vehicle mix changes, according to a new analysis by automotive market forecasting firm CSM Worldwide. During its Global Outlook Briefing for automotive industry executives, CSM predicted domestic sales gradually will return to the historical growth average of 140,000 vehicles per year as the housing downturn bottoms out and the credit crunch eases.
On the global front, CSM foresees economic growth in developing countries driving huge new demand for light vehicles over the next 20 years. Auto sales will show strong growth in China, India and Russia, but the market mix will differ dramatically among those countries. Fast economic growth in developing regions will eat away at the U.S. share of the global economy. China will overtake the U.S. as global economic leader sometime in the 2040s, India will surpass Japan to become the world's third-largest economy during that same decade, and Russia will pass Germany as the European auto sales leader in 2014.
"There are great opportunities in developing markets for global OEMs," said Michael Robinet, CSM Vice President, Global Vehicle Forecasts. "But in order to succeed, they must build economies of scale through the use of global platforms and commonality in the build process. Because these emerging markets are very different from each other, regional product flexibility and a broad production base will be necessary to attain sustainable success."
BRIEFING HIGHLIGHTS
Global
The world economy will grow at a 3-percent rate in 2008, with developing countries growing three times as fast. The U.S., European Union and Japan will expand less than 2 percent. Even though China and India lag far behind in terms of per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), they have large and growing wealthy segments.
Global light vehicle production will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6 percent to 87 million units by 2014, with more than two- thirds of the increase coming from developing countries. By that year, 43 percent of General Motors production will be based in developing markets, versus 34 percent for Toyota.
North America
U.S. vehicle sales will return to slow but steady growth beginning in 2009, but most of the increase will go to the "Asian 4" (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai/Kia) as segment volumes continue to shift toward smaller vehicles, primarily at the expense of the mid-size segment. The growth of the small-vehicle segment closely mirrors rising gasoline prices. Smaller
unibody crossovers will grow to the detriment of mid-size, full-frame SUVs.
Other significant factors:
-- The subcompact B segment (Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, etc.) will reach 1
million units by 2014.
-- The aging baby-boomer population will increase the demand for luxury
cars, "fixed-income-friendly" vehicles and driving-assist features.
-- The projected 2008 production of 14.3 million light vehicles in North
America could be in jeopardy if the UAW-AAM strike continues beyond
mid-April.
-- The continued depression in the housing sector, coupled with the credit
crunch, will slow U.S. GDP growth to 1.6 percent in 2008 as recession
worries continue. "Stagflation," a stagnant economy coupled with
inflation, remains a threat.
-- Aggressive interest-rate actions by the Federal Reserve Board plus the
stimulus effect of upcoming tax rebates will lay the groundwork for
recovery beginning in the second half of 2008.
-- GDP growth should rebound in 2009 thanks to recovering private
investment and robust productivity growth.
-- The weakening of the dollar makes U.S.-produced goods more affordable
globally; exports are rising, partially offsetting the housing slump.
Europe
Almost all sales growth will be in Central and Eastern Europe, which together will grow at a CAGR of 3.7 percent per year through 2014, while Western Europe shows a gain of less than 1 percent. Russia provides the best growth opportunity in Europe due to its dynamic economy and large population (145 million).
Key factors:
-- Sales in Russia will grow steadily at about 5 percent per year, fueled
by strong per-capita GDP increases, falling unemployment and moderating
inflation.
-- Russia will surpass Germany as the largest European auto market by
2014.
-- Growth in the Russian market will predominate in the B and C
(subcompact and compact) segments, lead by tall wagons and downsized
SUVs.
-- Production will grow 5.5 percent in Central and Eastern Europe compared
to 0.8 percent in Western Europe.
-- Germany will remain the production leader by a substantial margin.
-- The falling dollar will continue to squeeze margins on vehicle exports
to the U.S. Conversely, exchange rates make production shifts to North
America more appealing.
India
India's economy will continue to grow at a brisk rate as its per-capita GDP increases 286 percent, to $2,900, by 2030. Wealth will be comparable to today's Russia or Turkey. The urban population and middle class will expand, driving demand for an additional 200 million vehicles over the next 20 years and triggering light-vehicle production growth of 16 percent per
year.
Key considerations:
-- Low-cost, low-content mini-cars and subcompacts (A and B segments) will
dominate the market as consumers move up from scooters and motorcycles
into their first cars. A contributing factor is the lower excise tax
on small cars -- 12 percent, compared to 24 percent for larger
vehicles.
-- Vehicle penetration is expected to reach 166 vehicles per thousand
people by 2030.
-- India's working-class population group is growing at twice the rate of
China's.
-- Domestic production for light vehicles is likely to cross five million
by 2014; Tata, with its much-heralded $2,500 Nano mini-car, will
challenge Maruti Suzuki for market leadership.
-- Diesel engines will gain market share as new technology is adopted to
take advantage of India's high price differential for diesel fuel.
-- Economies of scale, coupled with a well-developed supplier base
featuring a competitive cost structure and quality meeting
international standards, will position India to become a global center
for the design, development and export of small cars and components.
-- The success in using India as a small-car export hub enjoyed by Suzuki
and Hyundai is encouraging other OEMs, including General Motors, Nissan
and Toyota, to move more small-car, design, development and production
there.
China
The growth of China's economy is slowing due to tighter monetary policies. Inflation reached a 10-year high in 2007 and will remain high in 2008. Per- capita GDP is expected to top $8,000 by 2030 -- a 300-percent gain that will represent wealth comparable to the Czech Republic today.
Significant factors:
-- China will need an additional 350 million vehicles over the next 20 years.
-- Vehicle penetration of 50 per 1,000 could grow to 250 by 2030.
-- Annual auto sales will exceed the U.S. by the mid-2020s.
-- Larger C- and D-segment sedans dominate the market; small cars are not popular.
-- Market is strongly polarized: low-cost, entry-level vehicles from local
OEMs versus mid-premium and premium offerings from foreign OEMs.
-- Government is encouraging hybrid and electric development, discouraging
diesel; Chinese OEM BYD is planning to launch all-electric vehicle by end of 2009.
-- The Chinese auto industry faces several short- and long-term challenges:
* Domestic OEMs are facing quality and brand-image issues.
* Flood of new models (83 in 2008, including 53 from Chinese OEMs) and
intense competition are forcing prices down -- five percent decline this year.
* Poor economies of scale -- too many models and platforms, too few
models per platform, far behind Japan in this regard.
* Exports will become more difficult due to rising costs, intense local
competition and the stronger Chinese currency.
CSM Worldwide (http://www.csmauto.com) provides trusted automotive market
forecasting services and strategic advisory solutions to the world's top
automotive manufacturers, suppliers and financial organizations. CSM
Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from Detroit, Grand
Rapids, Sao Paulo, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Budapest, New Delhi, Bangkok,
Shanghai and Tokyo.