Oil Prices Skyrocket After DOE Report Indicates Oil Inventory Depletion

Diesel costs more than gasoline and more diesel cars will only exacerbate that situation. The US refining capacity isn't geared to higher diesel production, so don't fool yourself thinking what works for Europe will work in the US. Buying a diesel to save on fuel costs is the worst thing you can do.

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 3:48:06 PM | | Votes: 0   

09CTSVforme,

you cannot be serious...

— Star (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 3:56:08 PM | | Votes: 2   

Completely. The US refining capacity is geared to only produce up to 15% diesel. Do some research. Look at the gas station. Diesel costs $1/gallon more than gas.

This is not made up. Look for yourself.

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 5:30:57 PM | | Votes: 4   

Here...I'll do the work for you...this isn't the first place I saw this, just the first one to pop up in a quick yahoo search...

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/gue/2006/0915.html

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 5:34:50 PM | | Votes: 4   

And a quick excerpt for the lazy ones...

"For the US, the growing diesel fuel shortage won’t be as easy to fix as the gasoline shortage. The US won’t be able to import diesel fuel from Europe as it does with gasoline because Europe just doesn’t have sufficient capacity to meet its own demand. This is good news for US refiners in the long term. Because of lack of capacity and little competition from imports, US refiners should earn high margins for processing the fuel."

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 5:36:12 PM | | Votes: 4   

Let's do some back of the envelope math:

U.S. daily oil consumption: 20.73mbpd
U.S. proven oil reserves: 21bbl(anyone who claims a higher number isn't talking about proven reserves)
U.S. complete depletion eta: ~3 years.

So we should be all set for a little while, right? Wrong... The peak oil game has NOTHING to do with reserves. It has EVERYTHING to do with production because the market only cares about tomorrow.

U.S. Oil Production: ~6.981mbpd

Anyway to raise that number? Not really. Why? Remember that in any business you pick all of the low hanging fruit first. In the oil business, that means you produce all the best fields first. All subsequent fields will produce at progressively lower and lower rates.

DOE estimates that ANWR would peak at 750,000bpd and we wouldn't get the first drop of that oil for a decade. The Gulf of Mexico has peaked and is in decline (e.g. Cantarel) and the Continental U.S. has been in decline since the 70s. Any new production brought online will only offset declines at current fields.

GTL and CTL are dead ends. It's not for a lack of natural gas or coal but instead for a lack of infrastructure. We simply don't have enough steel mills and welders to build the infrastructure we need in a timely manner. If you really dig into biofuels and look at the EROEI it quickly becomes evident that they won't work. So...

We need to move to EVs. In the very short term this means mild hybrids. In the short term it means BEVs. In the medium term we need PHEVs/EREVs. In the long term we need quick charge EVs.

— GreenPlease (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 9:01:15 PM | | Votes: 3   

save your breath, those diesel heads won't listen to reasons. for 30% more mpg, they are willing to pay 20%~30% more for fuel, thousands more for cars. expose themselves to bronchitis and lung cancer risks, pollute air with NOx and cause acid rain and smog.

the Tier 2 Bin 5 standard for Diesel cars are actually much less stricter than the Tier 2 Bin 5 for gasoline cars (since gasoline cars don't produce any harmful particles). so even if they manage to pass tier 2 bin 5 std, it doesn't mean they are as clean as gasoline.

also,
Diesel car produces less non-traceable CO2 pollution, but much more traceable NOx pollution.
the so called 'clean diesel' is nothing but an oxymoron. NOx is produced when the you have a lean mixture combustion (high compression ration=lower CO2 emission/distance=more power=high mpg). To reduce NOx, or to naturalize the excess amount of NOx, you need to have rich mixture combustion (low compression ratio=higher CO2 emission/distance=less power=poor mpg). so you either produce more CO2 , or more NOx. YOU ARE POLLUTING THE ENVIRONMENT EITHER WAY. (that is, if you don't have a replaceable capture device like blue-tech or something)

I have nothing against diesel lovers, i just hope they know everything about diesel before loving it.

— ghosthunter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 2:15:41 AM | | Votes: 0   

Ok, GreenPlease, you do your math on envelopes and I'll listen to the people who actually survey our oil reserves.

The "inconvenient truth" whether you greenly want to believe it or not is quoted in the articles I referenced (which you obviously chose not to read, or you must know more than the Dept. of the Interior and the Bureau of Land Management combined).

"In 2005, Congress passed the Energy Policy Act, requiring the Department of Interior to inventory the oil resources that could be found onshore and offshore in U.S. territory. In February 2006, Interior's Minerals Management Service, or MMS, published the report on offshore oil resources on the Outer Continental Shelf. It determined there were 85.9 billion barrels of "undiscovered technically recoverable" oil sitting off our beaches.

Just this offshore portion of our undiscovered oil is more than all the proven oil in Venezuela, and more than all the proven oil in Russia, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain combined.

What does the government mean when it says this oil is "undiscovered technically recoverable" oil? It means that we can go get it with off-the-shelf technology but that the government makes no judgment about the profitability of doing so. This oil, the government says, is "in undiscovered accumulations analogous to those in existing fields producible with current recovery technology and efficiency, but without any consideration of economic viability."

Last month, with almost no media attention, the Bureau of Land Management released the report estimating the other part of America's undiscovered oil riches, the onshore resources. This added 53 billion barrels to the national petroleum pot."

85.9 billion plus 53 billion = 138.9 billion barrels or crude that is currently technologically able to be captured.

Using your envelope (and a real calculator) that is:

138900000000 barrels available
20730000 barrels used per day
6700.43 days of oil we have under our own property
18.35 years to reduce consumption or find an alternative

And that could be after we use up all the oil other countries are willing to sell us.

I'm not saying we shouldn't look for conservation or alternatives, I am saying that I think there is alot more oil around than people think. When they cry about "high" gas prices, they need to think about what the opportunity cost is to get what they want.

Drilling = low gas prices for decades to come. THAT is the truth, whether people like it or not is the driver of what our Government does with it.

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 1:53:39 PM | | Votes: 1   

GREENPLEASE


The U.S reserves would deplete in 3 years???????? WHATTTTT???? Where are you getting your info? sources please.

— CommonSense01 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/13/2008 11:40:00 AM | | Votes: 1   

The total amount of oil in Alaska is only enough for American to use for 3 months. It is not that much.

Politician can't do anything but to make new laws, in that, they feel they achieve something. But making new laws to regulate in free market doesn't work well, generally, will make a ripple effect on oil price.

So our life will change, perhaps a revolution will come... Because we can't no longer afford this lifestyle. We can't no longer have goods made in China and have trucks to disperse the goods around the US, it is not energy efficient. We will probably drive less.

— dsch_iter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 2:41:59 PM | | Votes: 0   

Sorry dsch...that is not correct.

The US is sitting on more untapped oil reserves than most any single country in the world (something like 159 billion barrels).

We won't allow ourself to get it, though...yet. I think we're intentionally sitting on it to use up what everyone else has, then we'll start using our own and selling it when it goes to China & India for $1500/barrel. This is a good long-term strategy to maintain the #1 economy in the world, if not significantly expand it.

Why didn't I think of that? Wait...I did!

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 3:50:54 PM | | Votes: 4   

In case people think I cannot be serious on this point: (I was off...we only have 139 billion barrels)

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN-jeffrey_08edi.ART.State.Edition1.4646f8a.html

excerpt:

"The U.S. government knows where it can get its hands on more untapped petroleum than exists in the proven reserves of Iran or Iraq, which have 136 billion barrels and 115 billion barrels, respectively.

This unexploited stock of crude is greater than what the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports is in the proven reserves of Russia (60 billion), Libya (41.5 billion) and Nigeria (36.2 billion) combined.

It is more than Hugo Chávez's Venezuela has (80 billion).

It is more than is now known to sit beneath the waters and sands of Kuwait (101.5 billion barrels) or the United Arab Emirates (97.6 billion).

So, where is all this oil? And why aren't they pumping it?

What cartel is holding it off the market, to drive up prices at American gas stations and American supermarkets? What insidious power is stifling the free market for this vital commodity and thus threatening the vitality of our economy?

It is us, of course. We are the culprits. We are responsible for artificially increasing oil prices. It is our oil that sits untapped beneath our deserts, our forests, our swamps and our oceans. It is our politicians – the ones we freely elected and re-elected – who are not allowing our oil to be drilled by us and sold to us."

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 5:40:31 PM | | Votes: 7   

US consumption has been a hot topic in recent years, but it is not the biggest problem going forward.

What do you think is going to happen to demand and prices when 2 billion additional Chinese and Indian citizens buy a car overe the next 50 years? How about 2 or 3 cars per household?

The US (and Europe and...) are going to be at the mercy of these two consuming behemoths.

— 09CTSVforMe (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 1:58:58 PM | | Votes: 1   

dsch_iter

Why even speak if you have no idea? your statement about the oil in Alaska couldnt be more wrong.

— CommonSense01 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/13/2008 11:41:30 AM | | Votes: 1   

I read everyday about why gas is $4.00 a gallon and I still think a piece of information is missing to the equation of high prices.

Lets rewind back to the day before Katrina hit New Orleans. What was the average price of gas that day? Then poof, lets jack up the prices because of Katrina. I can understand why that happened, but I do not see the justification in how it got to what it is today.

Yea yea, supply and demand. Bogus. Something is missing here. And I believe there is a plan in place that explains this, that the public is not being told.

I do not have any conspiracy theories or pelican brief to offer here, but I really think something is going on here.

— scoobydo (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 4:44:39 PM | | Votes: 4   

Well said. If the housing market didnt get us into a Recession (according to the Fed) oil prices sure will. Once foreign countries stop subsidizing oil prices for their population and the U.S. expands its capacity and production right here, then we will see some good economic growth.

— w209w114 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 12:27:13 PM | | Votes: 2   

that is exactly what is causing price hikes. Speculation.

— Notjustlex (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 12:40:57 PM | | Votes: 3   

Not a chance old man mccain is taking this one. People are fed up and ready for some drastic changes. And he's not the geriatric for that, since he's just another bush, only older and less idiotic souding.

— tattedtwice (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 12:32:27 PM | | Votes: -2   

I agree. His gas tax isnt a gimmick like the ultimate political Gimmick Obama himself states. The oil tax lift was intended as a temporary relief and its based off a percentage of the price of gas.

Obama argues we need the money for public roads and ifrastructure development. I say a few months without it wont hurt. We were still building roads when gas was $2.00 a gallon and the govt was never short.

What about all the EXCESS money off of gas taxes they have made due to the high prices? it should be MORE THAN ENOUGH to cover this little gap.

Barack Obama = The wrong kind of change for America. We dont need bigger government.

I cant wait until the Media decides to tear him up. I think they are scared of touching him because of who and what he is. If McCain would have had the inexperience and scandalous and questionable background he would have been shredded beef by now.

— w209w114 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 12:34:06 PM | | Votes: 4   

Tattedtwice,

Youre one of the naive and ignorant people out there wo see McCains age as a liability. Well, I certainly dont see Obama's youth and inexperience as an asset. This man is power hungry, he has been in the senate for what? 4 years? 3 of which he has spent running for President. Open your eyes

— w209w114 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 12:39:08 PM | | Votes: 2   

Even still, McCain is not the answer either. Both of the candidates suck equally. We are screwed either way. All we can do it pray that things get better instead of relying on man to fix our mistakes. All politicians are corrupt and there is no good in that game.

— 0to60 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 1:07:18 PM | | Votes: 0   

"All we can do it pray that things get better instead of relying on man to fix our mistakes"

Praying for miracles dont pay my bills, praying hasnt solved world poverty, or famine, or war. Come to think of it, Praying hasnt solved anything. Its a tool for those who want an excuse to not take any action.

— w209w114 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 3:24:51 PM | | Votes: 5   

My faith has solved all of my problems. Maybe you are worshipping the false gods and you need to shift you focus to the only true God. How about giving him a try to see how that goes. It worked for me! Im 25 and Im positioned very well in all aspects because He ordered my steps.

— 0to60 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 7:27:24 PM | | Votes: 0   

Maybe all you needed to do was believe in yourself. And believing in a higher power helped you accomplish it. I am positioned very well in all aspects too and didn't need it. Religion is not for everyone. Just because Im not religious doesn't make you any happier or well of those who arent like myself.

Action = Results

— w209w114 (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 1:17:56 AM | | Votes: 3   

exactly. there are MANY reasons offered for the high oil prices. all of which have a small bit of truth.

but underlying it ALL, has been the wilting dollar, which as shrunk even more lately. one of the reasons saddam got hammered, was his threat to price his oil in euros instead of dollars. iran mite be considering that too, but with all the sabre-rattling in washington, NO OIL producer will seriously consider that for a while.

SOOO, they make up by boosting the DOLLAR PRICE of oil. and this CAN be justified due to the declining VALUE of the dollar.

we are now paying (belatedly) for the dollar printing presses being run WFO for so long to pay Bush's and collectively ALL our bills.

— ChicaneShooter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 4:45:52 AM | | Votes: 0   

They are not takeing any action because any thing that the government does will do more harm than good.

— TONYRICH (View Profile)

Posted on 6/28/2008 5:32:40 PM | | Votes: 1   

I agree, our cars need to go on a diet. I remember when 225hp would make a car seriously fast, now you can't get 0-60 in less than 9 sec with that power. 175hp is only good enough to get the average compact 0-60 in 9 sec, when the civic si of years back with 160hp could get 0-60 in 6.9 sec and still get over 30mpg. If cars werent so darn fat and heavy it wouldn't take 300hp to hit 0-60 in 6.5 sec. I remmeber when the 190hp maxima was getting 0-60 in the mid 6 second range. 200hp in a compact suv makes it slow as hell. put our cars on a serious diet and it won't take all of that power. think about how much more advanced engines are compared to 10 years ago. even with over 260hp we are achieving up to 30mpg on some full size cars. immagine what a lighter car with 200hp would do, while equaling or exceeding the performance of the 260hp full size sedan. look at the ford 500. 200hp makes it sluggish unles you get the bigger v6. the taurus with the 200hp duratech was much faster, and the old SHO of the early 90's with the yamaha v6 with 225hp was quick, just as quick as a 5.0 mustang 0-60. LOSE WEIGHT!.

— 85bmw745i (View Profile)

Posted on 6/11/2008 10:38:40 PM | | Votes: 3   

i have the same engine but no AWD in my '03 corolla.

i get 31-34 mpg on trips, averaging 70 mph. in everyday driving averaging 35 - 55 mph 'stead of 70, i can get 40 mpg! that is MY OVERALL mpg.

we can all get better mileage, by just going easy on the accelerator. i NEVER call on as much as 1/3, to say nothing of all 130 ponies under the hood.

and i can STILL manage to get from any pt A to pt B sooner than 90 - 100% of surrounding traffic. just by driving SMART rather than like an a$$.

— ChicaneShooter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 4:56:00 AM | | Votes: 2   

i like to drive fast as much as any other enthusiast. and often do, when on my honda bike.

but as long as you gotta deal with suburban/urban limits and traffic, why not APPRECIATE the lower speeds and EXPLOIT the higher mpgs you get? a NO BRAINER to me. so i always try to get my autobox to shift as soon as it can. i go beyond 2200 rpm only when needed for higher speeds. (after shifting, the gutsy toy motor can trundle along at 1500 - 1700 rpm with no complaints.)

and i will go up to 55 - 60 mph even on 45 mph streets, then COAST DOWN (this is the secret of getting places quickly, without burning much gas).

— ChicaneShooter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/12/2008 5:10:04 AM | | Votes: 2   

found out just last nite, that a couple i know that has an AWD Matrix got 37 mpg! on an 800 mile round trip.

(they DO NOT drive at 70 on the open stretches like i tend to do.)

— ChicaneShooter (View Profile)

Posted on 6/15/2008 5:57:37 AM | | Votes: 1