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Which Fuel Saving Platform Will Dominate The Market in 10 Years?

Agent009 submitted on 07/18/2007 Official AutoSpies Timestamp: 2:49 PM
from: www.autospies.com

[51] user comments | category: Misc News

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Which Fuel Saving Platform Will Dominate The Market in 10 Years?

Facing dwindling natural resources and increasing pollution almost everyone can agree that we must conserve more energy. The main argument today is how we need to do it.

President Bush would like us to believe that ethanol based flex fuels are the ticket much to the benefit of the American farmer. The Europeans feel that an increased focus on efficient, yet powerful diesels is the way to go. The Japanese on the other hand prefer an electrical boost in the form of the battery assisted Hybrid to stretch every last ounce of mileage per gallon.

To compound the situation every other day a new study touts the benefit of each platform and why it will win out. The JD Power and Associates think tank seems to be leaning to the diesel camp. The US government’s studies seem to indicate flex fuel are the best step. And a new study today by www.hybridcars.com says the Hybrids are the clear-cut winner. Confusing? No doubt.

Now with the wagons all circling around the proverbial campfire in 2008, we are preparing for the ultimate conservation shootout.

You tell us who will take the crown in the first step for conservation.

The established Hybrids?
The up and coming Diesels?
Or the true wildcard in the bunch Ethanol based flex fuels?

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budfrogS4 - 7/18/2007 2:59:06 PMView My AgentSpace

+6 Boost

The thing about diesel is that you can grow it as well. Then of course you get all the crop escalation problems that come with e85...but at least it's efficiency remains the same (not decrease like e85). You can also pair it with a hybrid train (see some Mercedes article a few weeks ago).

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w209w114 - 7/18/2007 5:20:20 PMView My AgentSpace

0 Boost

You could run an old 80's Mercedes S-Class diesel purely on filtered used cooking oil and get over 32MPG (without any engine modifications!). Now that truly "GREEN" and recycling at its BEST, and car manufacturers and the govermenment should take advantage of that.

Think of all the leftover grease from those fast food restaurants on every corner thrown away every day right here in the U.S.A. With little refinement it could easily be biodiesel or mixed in with regular diesel which would lower the cost of fuel. Why not recycle cooking oil the way we do paper?

Id skip the expensive hybrid marketing gimick campaign and move on from diesel to pure electric after they have been perfected.

abqhudson - 7/18/2007 3:01:12 PM

+9 Boost

Only the corn growers and their paid spokesmen (politicians and lobbyists) think that inefficient ethanol is worthwhile. Bad Science - B.S. for short.

Jim

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budfrogS4 - 7/18/2007 3:05:39 PMView My AgentSpace

+3 Boost

Nice.

w209w114 - 7/18/2007 5:22:39 PMView My AgentSpace

+3 Boost

This is why I hate our president. His entire term has been all about pleasing interest groups. First Haliburton now Lobbyists and farmers. America cannot wait to see one of the worst presidents in history leave!

goosubuc - 7/18/2007 6:45:21 PM

+3 Boost

Ethanol can be more efficiently made from more crops than feed corn. Unfortunately, that is the key method with lobbyists. The President has endorsed ethanol and biodiesel as a whole -- not just feed corn based ethanol.

Htay7500 - 7/19/2007 11:49:12 AM

+1 Boost

E85 uses a lot less energy and mpg. its a smart alternative, but not enough.

jon21 - 7/18/2007 3:06:38 PM

+1 Boost

My legs powered. :)

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w209w114 - 7/18/2007 5:24:17 PMView My AgentSpace

+1 Boost

Sport.

Yeah! not to mention ur driving a Mercedes-Benz instead of something made by Toyota.

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SevorbeupstryIsBack - 7/18/2007 4:04:38 PM

+2 Boost

Hmmm though one. Overall I'm thinking hybrid. But not the stupid gas-hybrid everybody uses today but a good diesel hybrid.

Also, within 10 years I think hydrogen will be further evolved.

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budfrogS4 - 7/18/2007 4:58:15 PMView My AgentSpace

+3 Boost

And by the time you get that diesel hybrid, you'll probably be pumping at least B20 into your car. So you'll have that "grown" diesel element too.

I'm not sure why people like H2 so much. I don't think it's a very good option. We just don't have the infrastructure to do it. It'd mean installing H2 storage tanks at every fueling station, which are very pricey.

Also, it burns cleanly, but does that really mean it's good for the environment? We're going to be depleting our freshwater resources making all of this H2 while dumping a lot of hydrogen into the atmosphere, which we don't know the effects of because we don't currently emit much H2.

BMW995 - 7/18/2007 4:19:48 PM

+1 Boost

There will probably be no winner here since no one solution exists. There is not enough "fuel" of any one of the solutions for that to dominate the others.
Normally I would vote for diesel BJT our wise bureaucrats have put such stringent regs. on diesel engines recently that they have just about killed this alternative.
I actually think the best solution is drastically lower weight and gasoline engines similar to the VW design (combination turbo and supercharging).

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Will_ - 7/18/2007 4:39:18 PM

+3 Boost

All this hybrid "hype" is dying down, yes, and still hybrid sales are strong. Hybrids aren't going anywhere. The possibilities of where the technology can go are extremely promising. Diesel technology has been around for ages; isn't it a miraculous coincidence that right when hybrid technology starts to take off, we start getting better diesel technology as well? Batteries will get smaller, electric motors will get more powerful.

However my thinking is that we wont have to necessarily "choose" one or the other in a decade's time...

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1970toyotamarc - 7/18/2007 4:49:17 PM

+2 Boost

Hybrids will win as they advance into fuel cell and predominately (or fully) elctric vehicles. Diesels will die out as all petroleum becomes more and more scarce. Plant based fuels will never take off on a wide scale because a growing world population needs to eat a lot more than it needs to drive.

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budfrogS4 - 7/18/2007 5:12:20 PMView My AgentSpace

+1 Boost

Well let's go a little further with this. Say we start using plant based fuels. We start driving up the price for crops and so we start making farmers rich. This money will attract big business (not that farming isn't a big business already) and they'll expand their acreage to meet the demand. And since we're producing more crops in fewer acres than we did years ago, I have no doubt that we'll be able to walk that fine line of efficiency/supply and demand. Let's not forget that, hopefully, we have no problems feeding our cars genetically modified soybeans.

Full electric hybrids must get their electricity somehow. But what's the source? If not coal, then from solar panels? The future largest solar farm being built near Fresno will only produce 80 MW from 640 acres. That's not much compared to most coal fired power plants that produce about 300 MW per unit. Electric cars just don't make sense.

w209w114 - 7/18/2007 5:28:52 PMView My AgentSpace

0 Boost

Budfrog

Picture this. Every driveway with power cords charging pure electric cars the same way as people charge a cellphone as they sleep. This is only long term solution. We can kiss gas stations goodbye (not a bad thing)

budfrogS4 - 7/19/2007 8:27:34 AMView My AgentSpace

+1 Boost

Sorry, w, I missed where you explain where we're going to get all these electric power from. The only mainstream renewable energy sources for electric power are hydro, solar and wind. We've pretty much cashed all the rivers that can handle damming; solar's expensive to build, maintain and develop; and wind just doesn't cut it. If we go nuclear, we'll have an abundant source for a while...but that will run out as well. So how is electric the long term solution?

Monk - 7/18/2007 4:49:50 PMView My AgentSpace

+2 Boost

WE MUST HAVE DIESEL-HYBRIDS!!!

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Htay7500 - 7/18/2007 4:52:01 PM

+1 Boost

neither of these methods will be the future IMO.

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SupraNeverBack - 7/18/2007 5:03:40 PM

+4 Boost

Don't know which one. But Toyota is going to sell one million in the year of 2010, and many others are trying hard to put out some sorts of mild hybrid systems by then.

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enthusiastx11 - 7/20/2007 2:38:34 AM

+1 Boost

and maybe in a few years they'll sell as many hybrids as mercedes sold diesels in 1970....

CBR2200 - 7/18/2007 5:22:53 PM

+1 Boost

Diesel + lighter cars = easy fuel savings

I used to drive a poorly cared for 20ish year old 197? diesel Rabbit. Always got around 55 mpg in all city driving. I'm sure I would have put up better mpg numbers if I had maintained the car and did some highway driving.

Hybrids will become wildly unpopular as the dead batteries start to pile up.

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w209w114 - 7/18/2007 5:31:29 PMView My AgentSpace

-2 Boost

Think of long term reliability! Whats Lexus to do now when old or faulty batteries will have to be replaced and the owners who paid top dollar for the hybrid badge will squeal at the costs?

Rupert - 7/18/2007 6:30:56 PMView My AgentSpace

+1 Boost

I think diesel, simply because all the components required for a hybrid are too expensive for smaller cars, and weigh quite a lot, and ethanol is just a joke.
Diesel is also a lot simpler for emerging markets (ie India), where expensive hybrid tech could not be repaired easily.

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supermoto - 7/18/2007 6:48:01 PM

+3 Boost

Diesel. Everyone in Europe is using diesel already. The Audi A3 I rented there was getting crazy milage, like 500 miles on a tank!

Current gasoline-electrics will be one day looked upon as the very first step in a long movement toward efficient vehicles. They will also be obsolete quickly as new technologies emerge.

And man, ever see the devastation caused in making hybrid batteries? Go too google images and type in 'nickel tailings' and you will be shocked to see the output of the canadian plant where the materials for Toyota / Lexus batteries come from. It is absolutley devastating to the environment, like a nuclear blast. Not to mention, the nickel goes from canada to europe to japan and back to the usa! Not so efficient!

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rg12345 - 7/19/2007 12:22:31 AM

+2 Boost

Man, I just freaked out seeing all those images. I started reading a few articles about that plant, it's even worse then seeing images:

"Building a Toyota Prius causes more environmental damage than a Hummer that is on the road for three times longer than a Prius. As already noted, the Prius is partly driven by a battery which contains nickel. The nickel is mined and smelted at a plant in Sudbury, Ontario. This plant has caused so much environmental damage to the surrounding environment that NASA has used the ‘dead zone’ around the plant to test moon rovers. The area around the plant is devoid of any life for miles.

The plant is the source of all the nickel found in a Prius’ battery and Toyota purchases 1,000 tons annually. Dubbed the Superstack, the plague-factory has spread sulfur dioxide across northern Ontario, becoming every environmentalist’s nightmare.

“The acid rain around Sudbury was so bad it destroyed all the plants and the soil slid down off the hillside,” said Canadian Greenpeace energy-coordinator David Martin during an interview with Mail, a British-based newspaper. "

7msynthetic - 7/18/2007 7:19:18 PM

+1 Boost

DIESEL HYBRIDS !!! and sorry to say this but Toyota is in the best position to get this to market sooner than anyone else due to their acquisition of Isuzu - Nuff said y'all!

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goosubuc - 7/18/2007 7:36:24 PM

-1 Boost

Did you know that GM has diesel hybrids on the road in the form of a bus fleet? These buses do more for the environment than all the Priuses currently in the world.

7msynthetic - 7/18/2007 7:21:12 PM

+1 Boost

Imagine a diese-hybrid Tundra - can you spell TORQUE!!

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david989 - 7/18/2007 7:38:20 PM

-1 Boost

Easy. Hybrids all the way. Toyota will sell a million of these with ease because they're really friendly for the environment. Zero emissions basically.

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quizz - 7/18/2007 7:43:58 PM

+3 Boost

Nuclear powerplants to run battery powered cars without combustion engines (like the Tesla sports car). Just leave your car plugged in at night to get a 200 mile charge the following day. That's more than enough daily miles for 90% of commuters. Those who need more miles going one way can opt for a diesel hybrid.

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Rupert - 7/18/2007 7:55:20 PMView My AgentSpace

+2 Boost

Thinking far into the future, using the latest technology uncovered by the MIT, my vision is really good.

The MIT recently found a way to "send" electricity wirelessly, meaning one could set up power transmitters in city streets, so that electric cars are permanently charged, but not just cars, mobiles and laptops and all electronic devices could be charged on the move, with no wires.

So far it's 60% efficient and works through wood, metal, people and mirrors, over a distance of at least 12 metres.
That's my idea of the future, not hydrogen, but all electric.

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hybridfarce - 7/18/2007 9:07:29 PM

+1 Boost

I think diesels will prevail in the next 10 years - robust, minimal maintenance, good (gas) mileage, can use biodiesel with no modifications. There are many possibilities being investigated now for producing biodiesel. I wish the algae biomass method works, as it takes relatively little area for a "farm" and it's renewable.

In 25 years, electric vehicles will prevail. Right now, electric drivetrains are nearly 90% efficient! Unfortunately, the majority of electricity comes from coal-fired plants (35% efficient with pollution) -- still a bit better than gasoline cars (20-25%). Hopefully in 25 years, we'll be generating electricity with a much more efficient and less harmful method than today.

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w209w114 - 7/19/2007 9:33:19 AMView My AgentSpace

+2 Boost

Not to mention they are stupid for not doing research on the environmental impacts of the production of the car before purchasing it. We need this Hybrid hype exposed on a grand scale say the "60 Minutes" show or any other high profile national media show.

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rocker - 7/19/2007 9:44:08 AM

+1 Boost

What would be the cost implications? High transition costs for all auto makers to convert to any of the 3 but after that, what would be the cost impact? Diesel in most part is still a fossil fuel(limited supply) or a recycled product(which the US is not keen on recycling, believe it or not). Battery technology should get cheaper as it grows with R&D. Ethanol is based off agriculture which helps feed the world and while it might come down in price from current gas levels it will eventually strike a higher demand(watch the commodities market on sites like www.futuresource.com and see how grain, corn, cotton etc will spike just like oil and gas). What will be the best for the world in the end not the beginning of this debate?

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hybridfarce - 7/19/2007 1:28:06 PM

+1 Boost

Ethanol may burn cleaner than gas, but shifting corn production (in the US) from food to ethanol will have a negative effect on food prices/availability. Corn-based ethanol production is currently an energy-negative process. Ethanol contains 34% less energy per volume than gasoline, requiring much higher compression engines to extract the energy better (but then it won’t burn gas). One positive aspect is that increased corn production will help minimize greenhouse gases, but even this is debated. Add it all up, and ethanol is not a very good alternative to gasoline.

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Designer1 - 7/19/2007 2:55:12 PM

+1 Boost

I chose hybrids even I don't like it for 3 reasons.
Desiel has been for soooo long and it only dominated Europe.
Ethanol is a failed attempt from the start and will have no future.

Hybrids, although cost too much for what they offer and in some cases they don't offer as expected, but it has the potential to dominate, as new battery technologies are coming out that means there's alot of interest and profit in this direction.

Now the hydrogen, I believe it will be the best way to go with, but we shall wait and see when that will be a production reality and not just one or two experimental stations and cars here and there. Build the hydrogen stations and cars will come to you.

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