In the high-stakes world of autonomous driving, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) remains the ultimate tease. As of December 2025, prediction markets like Kalshi peg the odds of unsupervised FSD—where no human oversight is needed—launching before June 2026 at a tantalizing 40%, hovering near the 42% mark that has enthusiasts buzzing. With current date firmly in winter, "next summer" feels like a finish line just out of reach, but Tesla's roadmap suggests it's closer than ever.
Elon Musk, ever the optimist, has doubled down on timelines. In May 2025, he tweeted about ramping up focus on "unsupervised FSD in Austin," signaling a pilot rollout in Texas as early as mid-year. Earlier promises echoed this: Tesla's Q3 2025 earnings call projected unsupervised deployment in select U.S. cities by year's end, starting with Models 3 and Y in California and Texas. Musk's track record? A Wikipedia chronicle of misses—from 2016's "full autonomy next year" to 2024's delayed betas—tempers hype, yet FSD v12's end-to-end neural nets have slashed interventions by 10x, hitting 800-1,000 miles between disengagements.
Technical leaps aside, hurdles loom large. Regulators demand "far in excess of human safety," with SAE Level 5 autonomy requiring billions of flawless miles. Europe's red tape could delay global expansion, though Tesla eyes a Netherlands debut by February 2026. AI forecasters like Powerdrill give 75-85% odds for limited Austin rollout by Q2 2026, factoring Musk's "Elon time" discount.
If it lands, unsupervised FSD could slash the 1 million annual road deaths worldwide, turning Teslas into revenue-generating robotaxis. Skeptics point to past flops, but 42% aren't betting against the vision. Summer 2026? Place your wager—Tesla's future rides on it.
What's YOUR prediction? Would YOU put money on the 42%?